Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts

Monday, 21 May 2018

The Turnbull Government has the solution to its poll number blues already at hand - but will it act?


lesterlost.com
State and federal governments have known for years that there is a correlation between unoccupied residential housing, negative gearing of investment properties and capital gains by individuals in the higher income percentiles.



An est. 11.2 per cent of residential properties were unoccupied, up from 9.8 per cent in 2006.

There is currently an artificial scarcity of residential housing in this country which governments seem intent on ignoring.


It has been reported in 2018 that 250 people are turned away from crisis centres across the country every day.

Again, governments are not paying enough attention to the social and economic costs to their own budgetary bottom line this growing problem will cause.

The latest Newspoll published on 13 May 2018 was conducted from Thursday 10 May to Sunday 13 May with 1,728 survey respondents.

It shows the Lib-Nat Coalition’s primary vote standing at 39% to Labor’s 38%. However the Coalition trailed Labor 49 to 51 on a two-party preferred basis, with that margin the coalition's best position since September 2016. 

That is the 32nd Newspoll in a row where the Labor Opposition was ahead of the Turnbull Government on a two-party preferred basis.

If Turnbull & Co really wanted to turn primary and two-party preferred polling numbers around they would announce some substantial new policy measures in the months following the 2018-19 Budget.

The phasing out of negative gearing of investment properties over a ten year period, reforming capital gain provisions and creating more tied grants for social housing would be a good start.

Tuesday, 24 April 2018

Repeat after me: Australia is a low-taxing country, a low-taxing country.....


“Australia is a low-taxing country. While tax debate in Australia tends to focus on tax rates, with endless comparisons of different countries’ rates of different taxes, these debates ignore the fact that Australia raises far less tax revenue than most developed countries.

This is not a problem in itself. There is no right or wrong level of taxation. However, the level of tax revenue raised inevitably affects governments’ ability to fund essential services such as health, education, social security, defence and infrastructure. Polling consistently shows that the Australian public would prefer higher levels of spending on public services than lower tax collection.” [The Australia Institute, 17 April 2018]

In two weeks time a federal government ideologically glued to cutting company tax and spending big on infrastructure on the back of ever-decreasing taxation revenue will deliver its 2018-19 Budget Papers.

So Prime Minister Turnbull and Treasurer Morrison will ignore polls like this one, because the only voters with influence are found in the ranks of political donors, big business and industry.

The Australia Institute, 18 April 2018:


Small government has small support - National poll

A large national poll of 1,557 Australians, released today by think tank The Australia Institute, has shown 64% of people want more public spending funded by tax revenue. Just 11% want lower taxes and less public spending.

* Two-thirds (64%) said they would prefer more public spending, funded by more tax
   revenue, and less inequality.

* Only 11% said they wanted lower public spending, lower tax and more inequality.

* A majority of voters for all parties selected the more spending and more tax option:

* 56% of both PHON voters and Other voters;
* 60% of LNP voters;
* 71% of ALP voters;
            * 75% of Green voters.


Polling Brief - April 2018 - more or less spending tax inequality.pdf

P521 Australia a low tax country.pdf

Tuesday, 10 April 2018

So many Newspoll losses mean democratic processes at risk as Turnbull Government strives to claw back political ground


“The Coalition now trails Labor by 47.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent in two-party terms across the four polls. This reflects a 48:52 result from Fairfax/Ipsos, the same from Newspoll, the same from Essential and a 46:54 result from ReachTel on March 29.” [The Sydney Morning Herald, 9 April 2016]

From May 2014 to September 2015 the Abbott Coalition Government experienced 30 consecutive negative Newspoll federal voting intentions opinion polls*.

After the sacking of Tony Abbott by his party and the installation of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister the Turnbull Coalition Government saw 12 positive Newspolls before this second rendition of a Coalition federal government itself experienced 30 consecutive negative Newspolls from 12 September 2016 to 9 April 2018.

This polling history indicates that the Liberal-National federal government is likely to have only had the national electorate’s approval for around ten of the last thirty-seven calendar months.

According to the Australian Electoral Commission; As House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are usually held simultaneously, the earliest date for such an election would be Saturday 4 August 2018. As the latest possible date for a half-Senate election is Saturday 18 May 2019, the latest possible date for a simultaneous (half-Senate and House of Representatives) election is also Saturday 18 May 2019.

Given that (i) between them the Abbott and Turnbull governments have experienced  experienced only 12 positive polls in the last 68 Newspolls; and (ii) the Liberal Party has already admitted that during its successful March 2018 South Australian election it had utilised the services of one of the known “bad actors” on  the international election campaign consultancy scene, the US-based data miner i360; it is highly likely that “bad actors” will be employed once more and over the next four to thirteen months voters will be subjected to a barrage of misinformation, bald lies, vicious rumour and false promises from both Coalition politicians and their supporters in mainstream and social media.

Voters will have to fact check what they hear and read as never before.

* A federal voting intentions Newspoll is considered negative for one or other of the two main political parties based on two party preferred percentage results
Newspolls surveys normally occur every two to three weeks outside of election campaign periods when they are likely to occur more often.
Newspoll results can be found at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll.

Sunday, 8 April 2018

Is the U.S. becoming a country hostile to Australian tourists?


According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics there were 13.7 million internet subscribers in Australia at the end of June 2017 and a 2016 Deloitte survey found that 84% of Australians had a smart phone.

An est. 20 million Australians use a social media platform like Facebook, Instragram or Twitter via a desktop computer or mobile phone.

Because we are one of the most digitally connected populations in the world the United States is about to pose an additional risk to our personal Internet privacy and safety if we seek any form of visa entry into that country.

ABC News, 31 March 2018:

A US federal government proposal to collect social media identities of nearly everyone who seeks entry into the country has been described as a "chilling" encroachment on freedom of speech and association.

The State Department filed a proposal which would require most immigrant and non-immigrant visa applicants to list all social media identities they have used in the past five years, as well as previously used telephone numbers, email addresses and their international travel history over the same period.

The information would be used to vet and identify them, which would affect about 14.7 million people annually.

The proposal goes further than rules instituted last May. Those changes instructed consular officials to collect social media identities only when they determined "that such information is required to confirm identity or conduct more rigorous national security vetting," a State Department official said at the time.

The proposal requires approval from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) but it supports President Donald Trump's campaign promise to institute "extreme vetting" of foreigners entering the US to prevent terrorism.

The American Civil Liberties Union expressed concern, saying the move would have a "chilling" effect on freedom of speech and association.

"People will now have to wonder if what they say online will be misconstrued or misunderstood by a government official," Hina Shamsi, director of ACLU's National Security Project, said in a statement.

"We're also concerned about how the Trump administration defines the vague and over-broad term a 'terrorist activities' because it is inherently political and can be used to discriminate against immigrants who have done nothing wrong.

Australian public opinion was changing on the subject of US-Australia relations before this latest Trump Regime move against digital privacy - it began to shift after Donald Trump was elected US president......

ABC News, January 2018:

Recent polling by the United States Studies Centre (USSC) and YouGov — surveying both Australians and Americans — gives mixed grades on American strength after the first year of Mr Trump's presidency. Perceptions of American strength and international security are closely linked for large portions of the publics in both countries — with some interesting exceptions. Our data suggest that many see the world as more dangerous precisely because the United States is perceived to be weaker under Mr Trump.

Almost half of Australians report that the United States has grown weaker over the past 12 months.

Only 19 per cent of Australians think America has grown stronger over the first year of the Trump presidency.

Americans are less dour in their assessments, with 36 per cent saying that the United States has become weaker over the last year. "Weaker" leads "stronger" by 27 points in the Australian data, but this difference is just six points among Americans….

Does a stronger (or weaker) America under Mr Trump affect assessments of Australia's security? It's complicated. In the aggregate, Australians associate a stronger America with a safer world and a safer United States, but this does not extend to assessments of Australian security.


More than half of Coalition voters say Australia faces more danger than a few years ago, irrespective of assessments of American power under Mr Trump. Labor voters and minor party supporters do associate a weaker America with a less secure Australia.

For Greens voters — at best sceptical about the US-Australia relationship — a weaker America makes for a safer Australia. Most Greens voters report that America is weaker under Mr Trump and just 32 per cent of those see heightened dangers for Australia over the last few years; among Greens seeing America as stronger under Mr Trump, half report things becoming more dangerous for Australia, although the small number of Greens in our data prevent firm conclusions.

Historically, a robust, bipartisan consensus has seen little partisanship in Australian public opinion on the value of Australia's relationship with the United States. Our data suggest that this equilibrium is under some stress. References to Mr Trump activate partisan differences in Australian thinking about the United States. While Australians (like Americans) associate increases in American power with a safer world, a perceived link with enhanced Australian security is weak at best (and probably inverted for Greens voters).

On the other hand, despite large partisan divisions, Americans continue to associate American strength with increased security for America's allies.

This proposition has been the bedrock of Australian foreign policy and defence thinking for decades, and remains so, Mr Trump notwithstanding. Accordingly, our data allows us to restate the challenge for the current generation of Australian policy makers and political leaders: articulating the value and relevance of the US relationship to an Australian public at best unsure about the direction of the United States under Mr Trump and the implications for Australia's security and prosperity.

Tuesday, 6 February 2018

26th Newspoll loss in a row for Turnbull Government


In the same week the 2018 Australian Parliament commenced business for the year Malcolm Bligh Turnbull was just four Newspolls short of the benchmark he created when he successfully challenged Tony Abbott in September 2015 and became Australia’s 29th Prime Minister.

As of 4 February 2018 Newspoll shows the Coalition is just one point ahead of Labor on the primary vote and on a Two Party Preferred basis it is four points behind.

While net satisfaction with leaders’ performance sees Turnbull a slender four points ahead at minus 13.

Should we expect a Libspill sometime in April-May 2018 if the polls continue this trend? Or are the Liberal and Nationals powerbrokers going to grit their teeth and soldier on until the forthcoming federal election?

Friday, 2 February 2018

How we see the cost of living in Australia in 2018


Essential Report, 30 January 2018:


A substantial majority believe that, in the last 12 months, cost of living (73%) and electricity costs (75%) have all got worse. The only economic measure that has got better is company profits (42% better/12% worse).
Compared the last time this question was asked in February 2016, there has been an increase in the percentage that think electricity costs (up 13% to 75%) have got worse. However, there has also been an increase in the percentage that think company profits (+12), unemployment (+19) and the economy overall (+18) have got better.


51% (down 2% since August) believe that, in the last two years, their income has fallen behind the cost of living. 28% (up 3%) think it has stayed even with the cost of living and 14% (down 1%) think it has gone up more.

64% of those earning under $600 pw and 58% of those earning $600-1,000 pw think their income has fallen behind while 54% of those earning over $2,000 pw think it has stayed the same or gone up.
Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU)media release, 31 January 2018:



Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 1 November 2018:




According to the ABS, over the last twelve months up to end September 2017 the Living Cost Index* rose:

2.0% for Pensioner and Beneficiary Households
2.1% for Other Government Transfer Recipient Households
1.7% for Age Pensioner Households
1.6% for Self-Funded Retiree Households
1.5% for Employee Households 

One of the principal drivers to the rise in costs for these groups has been the rise in housing costs due to the rise in wholesale electricity costs.


Monday, 8 January 2018

So where does Australia stand on climate change at the start of 2018?


On 21 December 2017 IPSOS Social Research Institute released its 2017 Climate Change Report which provides the findings the company’s annual climate change research.

It would appear that the Australian general public is not walking away from a belief that climate change is real, that it is affecting our lives and action on the part of government is required.

IPSOS, Climate Change Report 2017, excerpts:

Priorities of environmental action

Once again, renewable energy is the top environmental issue Australians would act on if they were in charge of decision-making. More than half (56%) identify renewable energy as an issue they would choose to address. The majority of Australians have identified renewable energy as an issue for action every year since surveying began in 2007.

Compared with 2016, there has been no movement in the top 6 issues of importance. Water and river Heath (49%) came in at number two. This is its highest rating for action since 2012 (when it was 52).

In third place in 2017 is illegal waste dumping (46%), followed by deforestation (45%), sustainability and climate change (both 43%).

In 2016 we noted that climate change had hit its highest rating since 2008 (when 47% believed it to be a top priority for action), and it retains that sixth place with more than two in five Australians once again identifying it as an issue for action.

Australians in regional areas are more likely to identify renewable energy as an issue for action compared with their counterparts in capital cities (62% ‘rest of Australia’ vs. 53% capital city residents). The same pattern is observed for water and river health (58% vs. 44%) and deforestation (51% vs. 42%).


The role of human activity in climate change

The past few years have seen a growing consensus in the political sphere that climate change is caused by human-driven processes. In the face of this change, Australians’ views of the causes of climate change have moved little in the past decade. This stasis has continued in 2017.

Only 3% of Australians think there is no such thing as climate change. Around one-in-ten (12%) believe climate change is caused entirely or mostly by natural processes. Two-in-five (42%) believe that human activity is mainly or entirely responsible for climate change and 38% believe that climate change is caused partly by humans and partly by natural processes.

Half of Australians aged under 50 years of age believe that climate change is mostly or entirely caused by human activity (50%) compared with one-third of those aged 50 and above (31%).

Voting intention, like age, is linked to public opinion on the role of human activity in climate change. Liberal voters and One Nation voters are less likely to think that climate change was mostly or entirely caused by human activity (34% and 25% respectively). Whereas, Labor voters and Greens voters are more likely to identify human activity as mostly or entirely causing climate change (50% and 69% respectively). There are no differences by geography, but those with a university degree are also more likely to say human activities are entirely or mainly responsible (51%).....

Climate change is a pressing issue with serious consequences

Most Australians think that climate change is already underway (62% either strongly or somewhat agree). More than half (54%) agree that it poses a serious threat to our way of life over the next 25 years. This increases to 64% agreement when considering the next 100 years…….

Who’s responsible for action on climate change, and who’s doing a good job?

….In 2017, Australians consider the international community to be performing best of the parties tested. More than one in five (22%) feel that the performance of the international community is very or fairly good (compared with 19% in 2016).

This means the international community overtakes State Governments in relation to perceived performance on climate change. In 2016, 20% said State Governments. This year, State Governments and the Federal Government sit in second place and 18% rated both these levels of government as very or fairly good. As in 2016, business and industry was considered the lowest performer (15% rated their performance as good).

Although business and industry is regarded as being the poorest performer of the groups tested, combined with such a low expectation of leading action on climate change, arguably this poor perception of performance is not as relevant as it is for the Federal Government (which carries the greatest weight of responsibility).

Liberal voters are far more complimentary about the current Federal Government’s performance on action on climate change (31% gave a good rating compared with 16% of Labor voters and 10% of Greens voters).

Who should be mainly responsible for action on climate change?

Participants were asked to rate the performance of the Federal Government, the international community, State Governments and business. It is apparent that Australians do not believe that any of these parties are performing particularly well on climate action.

Wednesday, 3 January 2018

Turnbull & Co have to make up a lot of ground six months out from the start of the federal general election countdown


According to Newspoll Malcolm Bligh Turnbull commenced the new year with only 31 per cent of the population approving of his performance as prime minister and only 35 per cent of voters willing to give his government first preference at the next federal election.

An election which is due to be called sometime between 4 August 2018 and 18 May 2019.

As for the swing against the Turnbull Government in mainland states………

The Australian, 26 December 2017:

The Coalition has suffered a two-point fall in its two-party-preferred vote in the five mainland state capital cities since September to trail Labor 55-45.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor leads 55-45 in Queensland, 54-46 in NSW and Victoria and 53-47 in both South Australia and Western Australia. This represents a 4 per cent swing nationally to Labor, which, if ­repeated at the next election, could result in the loss of between 20 and 30 seats for the Liberal and Nationals parties.

The final Newspoll analysis of the year threatens to dampen the buoyancy in the Coalition parties that flowed from Mr Turnbull ­finishing the year achieving victories in two by-elections triggered by the High Court ruling on dual citizenship and claiming the scalp of disgraced Labor senator Sam Dastyari as it pursued popular new laws to curb foreign interference and influence.

Sunday, 24 December 2017

No Christmas gift for Turnbull Government from Newspoll and nothing under the tree for most of us


There were definitely no bright shiny ribbons on this Lib-Nats Christmas box as Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Bligh Turnbull, along with his ministers, senators and MPs, trailed in the 25th consecutive Newspoll.

In Daily, 18 December 2017:

Labor leads the Coalition by 53 per cent to 47, representing a national swing against the government of three per cent.

The poll of 1669 voters across the country, conducted for The Australian over the weekend, shows the Coalition has made no ground in the past two weeks with Labor maintaining a one-point primary vote lead of 37.

Nor was there a Christmas gift for average Australian families in this little budgetary effort by Messrs. Turnbull, Morrison and Cormann set out below.

Because the bottom line is that:
wages growth is expected to remain low; 
the national unemployment rate isn't predicted to fall below 5.25% in the foreseeable future; 
there are additional funding cuts in education;
so-called debt recovery from welfare recipients will continue with enhancements;
reductions in certain types of welfare payment also continue apace; 
tha taxation system remains skewed against ordinaty workers AND 
government gross debt continues to grow across the forward estimates while government revenue growth is somewhat subdued.

There is also no Treasury forecast that Morrison's promiseded 2020-21 $23 billion reduction of the 2018-19 projected $591 billion total gross government debt will actually happen.
https://www.scribd.com/document/367416218/Mid-Year-Economic-Fiscal-Outlook-MYEFO-2017-18-Australia

Wednesday, 29 November 2017

Polls are still not looking good for Turnbull Government as November draws to a close


Essential Report, 28 November 2017. This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from 24th to 27th November 2017 and is based on 1,021 respondents.

Monday, 23 October 2017

Deputy Prime Minister & Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce in real trouble in his own electorate?


This is allegedly a genuine National Party of Australia document. However, to the chagrin of many it has been revealed to be a fake.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMs2L-vUIAALcUZ?format=jpg&name=large


Leaving aside the fake poll, the truth is that it is not just Barnaby Joyce's inappropriate dual citizenship which is a problem.

There is another issue which is not being denied at this stage......

According to News Corps’ Herald Sun on 21 October 2017:

Colleagues have told the Herald Sun they are worried the public figure has been punted out of the family home, which doesn’t exactly coincide with their, er, political beliefs.

The late-night office grappling is believed to have been going on for at least eight months and is an open secret in political circles. One minister was heard exclaiming they couldn’t believe it hadn’t leaked out yet.

Monday, 9 October 2017

Polling numbers not looking good for Turnbull Government as regional Australia loses patience


The Australian, 9 October 2017:



The quarterly Newspoll analysis, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor continues to lead the Coalition by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, holding the same advantage for three consecutive quarters this year.

In a shock result for the government in one of its key constituencies, the Coalition’s primary vote among voters outside the five capital cities fell from 36 to 34 per cent over the three months to the end of September.

The outcome is the government’s lowest result in regional Australia since it secured a narrow election victory last year with a 44 per cent primary vote outside the capitals, 10 percentage points higher than the new polling.

In a dramatic turnaround, Labor now has stronger core support than the Coalition among voters outside the capital cities, with its primary vote rising from 34 to 36 per cent over the quarter.

The outcome raises questions about the performance of the Nationals and country Liberals in shoring up support when the government’s fate could hinge on a handful of regional electorates in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

This is the first time Labor has taken the lead over the Coalition among regional and rural voters since last year’s election, when its primary vote outside the capital cities was only 30.8 per cent……

The survey of 9889 voters from July to September combines results from Newspolls conducted over the quarter, smoothing out short-term movements and resulting in a smaller margin of error of 1 per cent for national results.

While the Newspoll published on September 25 showed the government had seen a small slip in its support over three weeks, with the Coalition trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in two-party terms, the quarterly analysis shows an overall trend of 47 to 53 per cent in two-party terms throughout this year……

The government lags Labor in two-party terms in each state in the Newspoll analysis, ranging from a 47-53 result in Western Australia and Victoria to a 46-54 gap in Queensland and a 45-55 result in South Australia. The government improved its fortunes in NSW, narrowing the gap against Labor from 47-53 to 48-52 in two-party-preferred terms from one quarter to the next, and saw a similar one-point gain in South Australia while suffering a one-point decline in Queensland.

The Liberal Party is facing some of its toughest battles in seats outside the big cities, including the regional Victorian seat of Corangamite held by Sarah Henderson, the NSW south coast seat of Gilmore held by Ann Sudmalis, the NSW central coast seat of Robertson held by Lucy Wicks, and the northern Queensland seat of Leichhardt held by retiring Warren Entsch.

The Nationals are also under pressure in traditional strongholds including the NSW north coast seat of Page held by Kevin Hogan and the Queensland seat of Capricornia held by Michelle Landry. [my yellow highlighting]

Sunday, 8 October 2017

Australian Bureau of Statistics has carriage of the national voluntary same-sex marriage postal survey - a visual answer to the question "What could possibly go wrong?"


Images of just some instances highlighting predictable issues concerning the Turnbull Government’s national same-sex marriage voluntary postal survey……..
















But wait, there’s more…….




There were 16.0 million electors on the Commonwealth Electoral Roll as of 30 August 2017,

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics by 29 September 2017 only est. 9.2 million of these people had returned a completed voluntary same-sex marriage postal survey form.

Another 13.6 million completed and returned forms would see a survey response rate no politician would dare argue with if he or she hoped to keep their seat at the next federal election.

If over 90 per cent of enrolled electors could turn out to vote for a national song in 1977, surely just as many could get their finger out in 2017 and answer one simple question: "Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?"

The same-sex marriage survey closes in 30 days time at 6pm local time on Tuesday, 7 November 2017. Survey forms received by the Australian Bureau of Statistics after this will not be counted in official results.