Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Wednesday 1 April 2015

Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey needs to come up with a better argument concerning the federal Goods and Services Tax


David Pope in the Canberra Times, 30 March 2015

Brisbane Times 30 March 2015:

Treasurer Joe Hockey says Australian consumers have changed their behaviour so much in recent years, through online shopping and choosing more GST-exempt goods, that they are putting pressure on the GST as a revenue-raiser.

Apparently Joe Hockey is upset that this consumption tax raised $47.4 billion in 2012-13, $50.7 billion in 2013-14 and, is expected to raise $53.7 billion this financial year, $57 billion in 2015-16, $60.4 billion in 2016-17 and another $63.8 in $2017-18.

That’s not good enough for our millionaire Liberal treasurer.

It appears he is rather perturbed that people are still buying GST-exempt basic fresh food, simple dairy products and unprocessed cooking ingredients in their local shops or purchasing online second-hand, handmade or other goods worth less than $1,000.

This is the rather weak excuse he is offering for encouraging the states to believe there should be more in the federal Goods & Services Tax kitty.

The GST is a regressive tax when applied to low income households and no amount of vague talk in the mainstream media about possible ‘compensation’ for pensioners will change that.

Friday 13 February 2015

TRUST: no respite for Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott


Peter Martin, Economics Editor at The Age, blogging it like it is on 10 February 2015:

As Abbott brought forward the timing of the leadership vote on Sunday his supporter and finance minister Mathias Cormann told the ABC the economy was "heading in the right direction".

He wanted "to build on the achievements we made in 2014".

Take a moment to consider the achievements and the direction in which things are heading.

That year began with a quarterly rate of economic growth of 1 per cent. After the budget it slid to 0.5 per cent, and then to 0.3 per cent. It's falling, rather than rising.
The direction is down….

The Reserve Bank made its view about economic growth clear on Tuesday. Here's what it said when it cut rates an hour or two before its governor briefed Cormann and others in cabinet:

"In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with domestic demand growth overall quite weak."

It's weak and it's bleak. It isn't heading "in the right direction".

Looking ahead the Reserve Bank expects growth to remain "a little below trend for somewhat longer, and the rate of unemployment peak a little higher, than earlier expected."

Unemployment has climbed from a quarterly rate of 5.3 per cent at the end of 2012 to 5.8 per cent at the end of 2013 to 6.2 per cent at the end of 2014. We get the first figures for 2015 on Thursday.

The direction is undeniably clear, but it's not the right one. Unemployment is worse than it was at the peak of the global financial crisis. The Reserve Bank expects it to get worse still...

Hockey and Cormann will tell you that while unemployment is growing, employment is too. But it's not, really. The number of hours worked per month grew barely at all throughout 2014. More people may have been employed at the end of the year than the start but on average they've been working less, some shifting to part-time work and others to fewer hours of full-time work. Disturbingly, the Reserve Bank says the number of hours worked per month has scarcely changed since December 2011 despite three years of population growth.

None of these facts would surprise anyone in business or anyone looking for a job. What would surprise them would be to hear from the team at the top that things are "heading in the right direction". It would make them think they were being lied to….

Joe Hockey's first budget was far worse than it seemed on the night in part because he didn't tell us the truth about it on the night. The usual calculations showing the households that won or lost were missing.  The treasury had prepared them as usual, the treasurer withheld them.

And he made up stuff. He said treasury had told him that fuel excise was "a progressive tax". It hadn't. He said the poorest Australians "either don't have cars or actually don't drive very far in many cases," something many of them know to be untrue. Petrol takes up a much bigger share of a low-income budgets than high-income budgets.  

He said his own wealthy electorate of North Sydney had "one of the highest bulk-billing rates in Australia". It had one of the very lowest in all of Sydney. He said "higher income households pay half their income in tax". They pay nothing like half. Even those on $200,000 pay just 36 per cent. Back from his holidays this January he revived the claim and went further saying typical Australians pay nearly half their income in tax.

"When Australians spend the first six months of the year working for the government with tax rates nearly 50 cents in the dollar it is a disincentive. You're working July, August, September, October, November, December just for the government and then you start working for yourself and your own household income after that for another six months, he said.

But Australia's tax-to-GDP ratio is around 30 per cent, including account all taxes, state and federal. It simply can't be the case that typical Australians pay nearly half their income in tax. They don't.

And exaggerated claims have eaten away at trust. Hockey said Australia was on track to run out of money to pay for its health, welfare and education systems. The figures put forward by his then health minister suggested otherwise. In ten years the cost of Medicare had climbed 124 per cent, the cost of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme 90 per cent and the cost of public hospitals 83 per cent. But Australia's gross domestic product - the money we would use to pay for these things - climbed 94 per cent.

The government tells us it's concerned about future generations, but won't release the treasury's intergenerational report. It tells us it wants a discussion about tax, but won't release the tax discussion paper finalised late last year.

Without trust we lack confidence. We are neither spending nor investing what we should. Business and consumer confidence has been sliding since September….

The government itself has become an impediment to economic growth…..

Sunday 29 September 2013

So how is Federal Coalition Treasurer Joe Hockey managing Australia's national budget?


Joe Hockey as Opposition Shadow Treasurer in The Sydney Morning Herald, 17 May 2012:

''Labor has now sought increases in the debt limit of the Commonwealth from $75 billion to $200 billion, to $250 billion and now $300 billion. On each occasion they promise not to exceed the limit. Well, enough is enough - we are going to keep them to their promises''

Joe Hockey as Federal Coalition Treasurer in The Herald Sun, 28 September 2013:

Mr Hockey also said the Coalition would raise the $300 billion debt ceiling before Christmas ...


Here are the Abbott Government’s officially announced intentions to raise money from domestic/international sources: [updated 17.12.13]

18 September intends to borrow $800 million
20 September intends to borrow $800 million
25 September intends to borrow $800 million
26 September intends to borrow $1 billion
27 September intends to borrow $500 million
2 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
3 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
4 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
9 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
10 October 2013 intends to borrow $500 million
11 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
16 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
17 October 2013 intends to borrow $1 billion
18 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
24 October 2013 intends to borrow $1.5 billion
25 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
29 October 2013 intends to borrow $200 million
30 October 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
31 October 2013 intends to borrow $1 billion
1 November 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
6 November 2013 intends to borrow $600 million
7 November 2013 intends to borrow $1.5 billion
8 November 2013 intends to borrow $1 billion
8 November 2013 intends to borrow an additional unspecified amount

12 November 2013 intends to borrow $150 million
13 November 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
14 November 2013 intends to borrow $1 billion
15 November 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
21 November 2013 intends to borrow $500 million
22 November 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
26 November 2013 intends to borrow an additional unspecified amount
4 December 2013 intends to borrow $800 million
6 December 2013 intends to borrow $1.5 billion
10 December 2013 intends to borrow $100 million

11 December 2013  intends to borrow $800 million
13 December 2013 intends to borrow $700 million
15 January 2014 intends to borrow an additional unspecified amount
24 January 2014 intends to borrow $500 million
11 February 2014 intends to borrow an additional unspecified amount

In the first 128 days of the Abbott Government total borrowings from these sources will exceed $27.7 billion or over $216.4 million a day.

It would appear that the current Federal Coalition Government is borrowing at the same a higher rate as than the former Federal Labor Government. However, It has committed to raising the debt ceiling to $500 billion before 12 December 2013.

So there is no slowing down of the increase in the much dog whistled national debt since Joe Hockey became Treasurer - just as there is apparently the same downward trend in the rate of asylum seeker boat arrivals between the second Rudd Government and the current Abbott Government.

Wednesday 12 June 2013

Clarence Valley Council's economic management


Clarence Valley Council is preparing to increase farmland, residential and business property rates across much of the local government area, but is quarantining Grafton and South Grafton CBD businesses from these increases for the next four years.

Apparently this particular council is pleading income poverty.

Well if this little tale of the economic management of just one of this council’s own Grafton properties is anything to go by, is it any wonder?

The Daily Examiner 11 May 2012:

TENDERS for Grafton's art gallery cafe closed earlier this week without a single expression of interest being received by Clarence Valley Council.
Council's manager of assets George Kriflik said that the only option would be to readvertise.
The art gallery cafe has been the home to Georgie's Cafe for the past 11 years and has been the subject of lengthy negotiations due to a proposed rate increase by council.
Mr Kriflik said that due to a confidentiality agreement between the parties involved, he was not able to disclose many of the details of the lease or negotiations, but he did confirm the previously quoted figure of a 40 per cent rent increase was an error (The Daily Examiner, April 17), with the original increase being closer to 33 per cent.
"After a re-valuation the rate was reduced to a 14.5 per cent increase," Mr Kriflik said.
However, this too was declined by the lessors and resulted in the current cafe operators deciding to move on.

Suddenly at the end of June 2012 the council has vacant commercial space where it previously had an income which it never denied represented full market value. Still it somewhat optimistically expected The loss of income from the current lessee will be offset by the new lessee under a new lease arrangement [Clarence Valley Council Ordinary Meeting 17 April 2012, Minutes].

By July 2012 Clarence Valley Council did indeed have a new tenant at what was then rumoured to be a bargain basement priced three year lease with renewal options having only CPI rent increases attached - which saw it losing income and the restaurant turning into a daytime only café with limited opening hours.

However, in June 2013 that tenant also departed and was replace by Cr. Jeremy Challacombe’s son Murray and his daughter-in-law who took over the bargain basement lease to run the gallery café.

Three tenants in just under a year and how much money is council down? Possibly those valley residents facing yet another rate hike will never know, but mention of $20,000 per annum is being tossed around some dinner tables.

Few Lower Clarence ratepayers are impressed with the Grafton-centric attitude of council as it is and this is merely the icing on a huge dissatisfaction cake.

Friday 10 May 2013

The state of the Australian economy confuses the average voter?


It rather beggars belief that so many political commentators have been talking down the Australian economy for the last five years, when overall that same economy has been the envy of the developed world during that same period.

It seems that hardly a week has gone by when somewhere in the national media there hasn’t been a journalist reporting economic doom and gloom, aided and abetted by various Liberal and National Party politicians.

Yet in 2013 gross government debt stands at a comparatively modest $271 billion by international standards and net government debt is estimated at $145 billion to date in Australia as the world’s 12th  largest economy. The nation still has GDP growth, a budget deficit of around 1 per cent of GDP or less, an across the board AAA international credit rating, low inflation, low unemployment and is considered a safe haven for investors.

To say that this disconnect between negatively-coloured reporting and verifiable fact may have led to voter ambivalence is positing the obvious and it can possibly be seen in this survey.

Between Wednesday 1 May and Sunday 5 May 2013 an estimated 1,000+ survey respondents answered questions concerning the Australian economy and, their replies were published as part of the broader Essential Report on 6 May 2013.

These respondents were drawn from among the same 7,000-8,000 people who have been answering this regular Essential Services survey for years.

What is interesting about this latest report is the respondents answers to questions about government debt.

In one question 25% think that Australia’s national debt is higher than other developed countries and 48% think it is lower – 18% think it about the same.

In another 46% think the main reason for Australia’s national debt is that the Government are poor economic managers. 26% think it is due to the world economy and 17% blame the high Australian dollar.

However, in yet another question 39% think that government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies has been good/very good and 32% think it has been poor/very poor.

While the conclusion arrived at in the final question was that 32% trust Wayne Swan more to handle Australia’s economy and 35% trust Joe Hockey more. With those on incomes under $1,000pw favour Wayne Swan 34%/31% while those earning over $1,000pw favour Joe Hockey 37%/32%.

So while the biggest percentage blocs in two questions realized that Australia’s national debt was lower than most other developed countries and considered that the Gillard Government's management of the economy was good to very good in comparison with the rest of the world - at the same time the biggest percentage bloc in another question decided that the federal government’s poor economic management was the root cause of the national debt.

Leading to the untried Opposition Shadow Joe Hockey being seen by three per cent more respondents as being better trusted when it came to handling the Australian economy than Treasurer Wayne Swan and, that 3% looking suspiciously like a group earning over $1,000 per week.

It would appear that five years of relentless negative comment in the media may have left many unable to reconcile political rhetoric with Treasury’s annual economic data and, choosing to believe the former rather than the latter much of the time.

* Graph from ABC News

Tuesday 16 April 2013

I don't know how many times reputable economists have to say it before the Murdoch media will believe it....

 
Here is Stephen Koukoulas at Market Economics trying for the xxxxth time to demonstrate the obvious fact that Australia’s public debt is not at a problematic level:
 
 
Sloan fails to mention in her piece the actual indicators which determine whether a particular level of government debt is a problem or not. These indicators are not opinion or a hunch or a doctrinal Tea Party like fear but simple and observable benchmarks.
Perhaps most important of all of these is the level of government bond yields, or the interest rate that a government pays on its debt. This is a good benchmark on which to judge whether or not government debt is something to be nervous about. In simple terms, if there is too much debt, yields are high. If bond yields are low and the bond market is free of government intervention, there is no fear about government debt.
The Australian 10 year government bond yield is currently around 3.3%, marginally above the record low reached in the middle of 2012. In the last 50 years, there have been only a few months, all of them in the last year, where yields have been lower than they are today. No nervousness here.

Tuesday 12 March 2013

Stephen Koukoulas on the subject of Tony Abbott as an economic forecaster


From Market Economics 9 March 2013:
In his Budget reply speech in May last year, Mr Abbott made the following claim:

§  “Madam Deputy Speaker, from an economic perspective, the worst aspect of this year’s budget is that there is no plan for economic growth; nothing whatsoever to promote investment or employment.”

Since that speech was delivered, this has what has happened to growth, investment and jobs:
§  The economy (real GDP) has grown by 1.9% in the three quarters to December 2012. This is an annualised increase of 2.5%.

§  Private sector business investment has risen by 2.5% in the three quarters to December 2012 to be a thumping 70.0% higher than the  level of investment when the Coalition was last in office. The capital expenditure expectations data were, according to Westpac, “robust” with investment likely to rise a stunning 11% in 2013-14 to fresh record highs.

§  Since June 2012, 53,400 jobs have been created, 30,000 of these full-time positions.

Wednesday 23 January 2013

It's an election year and some Coalition candidates will probably mention productivity growth and labour costs

 
Whenever a Coalition candidate mentions ‘low’ annual productivity growth or ‘rising’ labour costs, in the lead up to the 2013 federal general election, remember these graphs from Greg Jericho .
Australia is doing very nicely thank you.
 

Sunday 11 November 2012

In which Standard & Poors, ABN Amro and Local Government Financial Services Pty Ltd are found liable for Australian local government financial losses

 
Excerpts from Justice Jayne Jagot's reasons for judgment in the matter of Bathurst Regional Council v Local Government Financial Services Pty Ltd (No 5) [2012] FCA 1200 (5 November 2012):
 
12.5.3.7 IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
  1. For the reasons already given I do not accept that the GFC was the real, essential or effective cause of the loss or damage incurred by the councils…..
16. CONCLUSIONS
  1. For the reasons given in the preceding sections I am satisfied that:
(a) the councils' claims for rescission of the agreements by which they purchased the Rembrandt 2006-3 CPDO notes from LGFS and restitution (both under statute and otherwise) should not be accepted;
(b) leaving aside some aspects of their claims immaterial to their overall entitlement to damages, the councils are each entitled to succeed in their various claims for damages against LGFS, S&P and ABN Amro;
(c) the claims of LGFS, S&P and ABN Amro against the councils for contributory negligence and being largely responsible for their own loss, with the consequence that the damages payable to each council must be reduced, should not be accepted;
(d) the councils have each proved that they suffered loss and damage as required to sustain their claims against LGFS, S&P and ABN Amro, the damage being the amount each paid for the Rembrandt 2006-3 CPDO notes less the amount they received on the cash-out of those notes. No deduction for coupon payments received by the councils should be made;
(e) this is also the proper measure of damages payable to Cooma and Corowa in respect of their breach of contract claims against LGFS;
(f) other than in respect of their claims for equitable compensation from LGFS for breach of fiduciary duty, the councils' damages claims against LGFS, S&P and ABN Amro attract the various proportionate liability provisions and liability for the councils' damages should be apportioned as between LGFS, S&P and ABN Amro as to 33⅓% each;
(g) the councils' claims for equitable compensation from LGFS for breach of fiduciary duty should also be sustained. While this compensation is not apportionable the measure of compensation is the same as the councils' damages claims;
(h) there is an outstanding issue as to the interest which the councils should receive, ABN Amro having argued that pre-judgment and perhaps post-judgment interest should not exceed the interest which would have been payable had the Rembrandt 2006-3 notes not cashed out and the other parties not having addressed that argument;
(i) LGFS is entitled to succeed in its various claims against ABN Amro and S&P including:
(i) proportionate liability of S&P and ABN Amro in terms of the councils' claims against LGFS (see above);
(ii) liability of S&P and ABN Amro to LGFS for damages in respect of the Rembrandt 2006-3 CPDO notes that LGFS purchased and did not sell to councils but sold instead to its parent company, LGSS, after S&P downgraded the rating of those notes from AAA to BBB+; and
(iii) liability of S&P and ABN Amro to make equitable contribution to LGFS in respect of LGFS's settlement of the StateCover claims against LGFS, S&P and ABN Amro relating to StateCover's purchase of the Rembrandt 2006-2 CPDO notes.
(j) the claims of S&P and ABN Amro against LGFS for contributory negligence and being largely responsible for its own loss in respect of the Rembrandt 2006-3 CPDO notes that LGFS purchased and did not sell to councils, with the consequence that the damages payable to LGFS on that account must be reduced, should not be accepted;
(k) LGFS has proved that it suffered loss and damage as required to sustain its claims against S&P and ABN Amro in respect of the Rembrandt 2006-3 CPDO notes it did not sell to councils, the damage being the amount LGFS paid for the Rembrandt 2006-3 CPDO notes less the amount LGFS received on the sale to its parent company. Again, no deduction for coupon payments received by LGFS should be made;
(l) LGFS's damages claims against S&P and ABN Amro attract the various proportionate liability provisions and liability for LGFS's damages should be apportioned as between S&P and ABN Amro as to 50% each;
(m) the issue of interest referred to above applies equally to LGFS;
(n) LGFS's claims against S&P and ABN Amro for damages or equitable contribution against S&P and ABN Amro in respect of LGFS's settlement of the StateCover proceedings should be accepted, with LGFS, S&P and ABN Amro each to contribute 33⅓% to the overall settlement sum including LGFS's costs of the proceedings;
(o) the cross-claims of S&P and ABN Amro against each other should be rejected;
(p) LGFS's claims against AHAC for indemnity under the contract of insurance should be accepted and AHAC's cross-claim against LGFS for reimbursement of defence costs already paid should be rejected; and
(q) costs, along with the outstanding issue of interest, may be argued.
 
3723.   Directions will be made for the parties to confer about a timetable for the making of any further submissions on interest and costs, as well as the making of final orders in accordance with these reasons for judgment.
 
On 24 May 2012 the Australian Securities and Investment Commission revoked Local Government Financial Services Pty Ltd's Australian Financial Services license.
 
It has been reported that Standard & Poors intends to appeal the 5 November Federal Court judgment.

Sunday 28 October 2012

I didn't switch off the porch light and it's all Julia's fault!

 
THE FACTS
 
On 1 July 2012 NSW electricity prices rose yet again.
 
The NSW Independent Pricing and Regulation Tribunal set this price rise and produced this table outlining the cumulative causes of these increases:
 
SILLY RESPONSE
 
Samantha Lubke-Wood It's not the electricity company's fault, it's the governments fault for selling the company's off and privatising the section. Now it's owned by an overseas company so now they can charge as much as they like. Don't blame essential energy they just get paid to maintain the lines. Blame The PM.
Thursday at 12:29pm via mobile  (Someone obviously forgot that it was a state government sell-off of power assets, that the NSW Government still owns “the lines” aka network and actively lobbies for increases to its own charges, that Essential Energy costs do end up on residential bills and, that electricity pricing is a lot more complicated than 'It’s all Julia's fault!')
 
SENSIBLE RESPONSE
 
Julie-Anne Wiles Our bill came down $250. All we did was turn off the second fridge and not use the dishwasher. I was actually happy with our bill.
Friday at 11:42am via mobile (A mother of two who took the necessary action to avoid household budget stress)
 
FOR THE UNDECIDED SOME COMPARATIVE WINDOW SHOPPING
 
 

Wednesday 12 September 2012

People power brings the super trawler to a halt



After Seafish Tasmania the Dutch-owned operator of super trawler FV Abel Tasman, formerly known as the FV Margiris, had indicated it would still fish around the east coast despite the toughest conditions Mr Burke was able to impose under existing environmental law (having previously draped itself in a flimsy undertaking research as we fish veil) thousands of ordinary Australians appear to have been motivated enough by the precautionary principle to contact the Australian Government over the issue and demand action.

The Federal Member for the NSW North Coast seat of Page, Janelle Saffin, also deserves an honourable mention for approaching Minister Burke when the potential for localised fish stock depletion and destructive by-catch first became apparent - telling him that if he did not currently have the power to halt the vessel's intended fishing activities then people expected him to resolve the situation by changing the law.

This is the government response.

The Hon Tony Burke MP, Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities:

Media release
11 September 2012

Environment Minister, Tony Burke, has announced plans to legislate to extend his legal powers over the super trawler FV Abel Tasman, (formerly FV Margiris), to prevent the vessel fishing in Australian waters.

“If we get this wrong there are risks to the environment, to commercial operators and to everyone who loves fishing and they are risks I am not prepared to take,” Mr Burke said.

“There has never been a fishing vessel of this capacity in Australia before and the EPBC Act needs to be updated so that it can deal with it.”

The 142m super trawler is currently docked at Port Lincoln in South Australia.
Mr Burke acted after first raising concerns over the potential for harmful by-catch of dolphins, seals, seabirds and threatened or protected species.

“Last week I used all the powers available to me under the EPBC Act, (Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act), to ensure that all legal steps are being taken by the super trawler to limit its impact on any listed species, but I want to do more,” Mr Burke said.

“There is a lot of uncertainty in the community about the environmental, social and economic impacts of a fishing vessel of this size.

“At the moment there are no general powers in the EPBC Act to prevent new fishing vessels like the FV Abel Tasman from fishing while further scientific assessments are undertaken.

“I have been lobbied for some time on this issue by a large number of Labor MP’s.
“It was my view that legislative change should not be pursued until we knew how far I could go under current law.

“Once it was clear that my legal powers under the EPBC Act were constrained I commenced working with my department on these changes.

“That is why I directed that urgent legislation be drafted to amend the EPBC Act to stop the FV Abel Tasman,” he said.

The amendment will prohibit the super trawler engaging in a declared fishing activity in Commonwealth waters while a further assessment is undertaken by an expert panel that will report directly to the Minister.

“If the amendment I am proposing is passed by the parliament I will be able to work with the Fisheries Minister to set up an expert panel to conduct an assessment of all of the potential impacts of the FV Abel Tasman before it can be given approval to fish in Commonwealth waters.

“Until this expert panel has reported to the parliament on their assessment, the declared fishing activity will be prohibited.

“It is important we undertake an open and transparent assessment process to help restore the public’s confidence in our management of our Commonwealth waters.

“We are not in the business of taking big risks with the ocean which is why Australia has the best-managed and most sustainable fisheries in the world,” Mr Burke said.

On the same day:

Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Senator Joe Ludwig, has today announced a major review of Australian fisheries policy and legislation, the first of its kind in over twenty years.

UPDATE:

On its website PARLEVLIET EN VAN DER PLAS BEHEER B.V. states that the home port of the newly renamed Able Tasman is Brisbane, Queensland. In April 2012 this Dutch company appears to have registered a second entity for SEAFISH TASMANIA PELAGIC PTY LTD in Brisbane.

UPDATE:
 
Passed the House of Representatives on 13 September 2012

Saturday 18 August 2012

49 Days Since That Carbon Tax Ended Life As We Know It


Or is it?

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has now spent years telling Australians that the sky would fall and our way of life would end once the Gillard Government put a price on industrial greenhouse gas emissions.

Forty-nine days have now past and there appears to be little discernible difference to life before and after July 1, 2012.

At Day Two according to Peter Martin:

Also from July 1...
PAY RISE $17.10 per week for low-paid workers
TAX FREE THRESHOLD No tax until $18,200
TAX CUTS For everyone up to $80,000
PENSION INCREASE 1.7% from May 2013
FAMILY TAX BENEFIT BOOST $300 per child
DOUBLE NSW FIRST HOME BUYERS GRANT $15,000 for purchase of new home
CREDIT CARD LENDERS Forced to clear high interest debts first
TICK AND FLICK BANK SWITCHING Sign one form once
TOUGHER MEDICARE LEVY SURCHARGE 1.25% to 1.5% for high earners without private insurance
LOWER PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE REBATE 10% to 20% instead of 30% for high earners
INSTANT ASSET WRITE-OFF Up to $6500 per small business
MINERALS RESOURCE RENT TAX To raise to $3 billion in its first year

On Day 20 according to Market Economics:

Since November 2007, there have been a series of income tax cuts, some large, some small and all set across different income brackets. Suffice to say that for the high income earner in the above example, they will be paying around $1,850 less income tax than had the tax scales prevailing in November 2007 been left in place. The lower income earner in this household is paying around $2,050 less in income tax, meaning an ongoing saving of around $3,900 a year. The combined effect of the wage increases and lower income tax rate translates to a rise in take-home income in this household is around $16,500 a year.


No interest rise for the 20th consecutive month Vs 10 consecutive rises under Howard/Costello. Last interest rise was Nov2010. At July 2012. And an economy that is travelling well above trend growth.

Again at Day 27 according to Market Economics:

Indicator
Change since end June 2012
Market Indicators
Official cash rate
No change
Australian dollar (vs USD)
+2.0%
10 year govt bond yield
-0.14 percentage points
ASX200
+2.1%
Change in market cap of ASX
+$23 billion
Economic Indicators
RP Data house prices
+0.6%
Change in Housing Wealth
+$24 billion
Westpac index of Consumer sentiment
+3.7%


In April 2012, GFC Berwick Pty Ltd sent a letter to 2,122 of its members promoting a 'RATE FREEZE' offer, which offered members a range of lengthy contract extensions at current or reduced membership rates. The letter represented to members that by taking up this offer members could avoid a fee increase of 9-15 per cent due to the carbon price.
ACCC chairman Rod Sims said, "The ACCC believes that GFC Berwick did not have a reasonable basis for claiming the carbon price would increase the cost of gym memberships by 9-15 per cent. We understand that over 200 members took up the offer and extended their contract. We are concerned that the false claims about the carbon price may have encouraged these people to sign lengthy contract extensions they otherwise would not have."
"Businesses are free to set their prices as they see fit but must carefully consider the basis for making carbon price claims and ensure such claims are truthful and have a reasonable basis," Mr Sims said.
As part of the resolution of this matter, the CEO of the Genesis Division of Belgravia Health & Leisure Group Pty Ltd, the company which manages the franchise network, wrote to all affected members on behalf of GFC Berwick offering them the opportunity to withdraw from the contract extensions at no cost.

Day 37 on Twitter:

Australia's GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD - Unemployment 5.1%, GDP 4.3% - Inflation 1.2% - Interest 3.5% with $500B investment pipeline

On Day 49 according to The Sydney Morning Herald:

In a Treasury research paper released yesterday, economists Will Devlin and Deepika Patwardhan used prices in the so-called inflation swaps market to derive traders' expectations about the price impact of the tax.
Inflation swaps allow one trader to agree to pay another the inflation rate on a specified sum in return for a price. It is worth $12 billion per year.
Advertisement
The paper said inflation swaps pricing was a good guide to what the market thought would happen because it ''reflects the collective actions of actors who have to back their views by putting their money where their mouths are''.
Their analysis found the market expected a one-off jump in inflation of between 0.6 per cent and 0.7 per cent followed by a return to the previous rate, as forecast by the government. It did not support claims by the Coalition spokesman, Greg Hunt, that price rises would "take time to flow through the economy" or that "this is just the beginning as the carbon tax goes up every year".
The first TD Securities-Melbourne Institute inflation reading since the start of the tax showed a total price increase for the month of just 0.2 per cent, even after accounting for a rise in electricity prices of 14.9 per cent and in household gas prices of 10.3 per cent.