Showing posts with label drought. Show all posts
Showing posts with label drought. Show all posts

Wednesday 3 January 2024

New South Wales might still be in the grip of drought, however December rains did some good

 

Those rolling thunderstorms, wind, rain and flash flooding that plagued the state in December were not just uncomfortable - at times they were dangerous. 


Even now in the first two days of 2024 the NSW State Emergency Service (SES) has responded to more than 115 incidents in the past 24 hours, in response to the impacts of storms and flooding in the north east of the state.


However, all that weather has produced one set of images to bring smiles to the faces of some people in a number of coastal districts.


It's not enough to come out of drought but areas of intense drought have shrunk somewhat.


The Northern Rivers region has seen the Intense Drought category sink back down to 14.5 per cent from a Spring high of an est. 42.8 per cent of all land. While the Drought category fell from 41.6 per cent to 29.1 per cent, with those decreases moving over to being Drought Affected land sitting at 56.3 per cent of the region. 


This of course is 2024, the year of accelerated global warming and erratic weather patterns, so it feels like a coin toss as to whether the Australian east coast and the Northern Rivers in particular have three months of destructive storms ahead or a return to below average rainfall until Winter arrives.




NEW SOUTH WALES DROUGHT PERCENTAGES 29.12.23

NSWDPI Combined Drought Indicator

























Friday 20 October 2023

From Port Macquarie-Hastings to Tweed on the NSW-Qld border drought conditions on the North Coast & Far North Coast are intensifying

 

Combined Drought Indicator
NSW Dept. of Primary Industries
Click on image to enlarge






As of 14 October 2023 est. 40 per cent of the NSW North Coast from Port Macquarie-Hastings to the NSW-Qld border is "Drought Affected".


Another 44.2 per cent is in "Drought" and, a further 15.6 per cent is experiencing "Intense Drought"


The Northern Rivers regions local government areas with the most land classified as in "Intense Drought" are Clarence Valley and Richmond Valley


Typically intense drought field conditions are; Ground cover is very low, soil moisture stores are exhausted and rainfall been minimal over the past 6-12 months.


The Rainfall Index across these valleys has been dropping since the beginning of May 2023 and generally a lessening of soil moisture has been occurring since April.   


The Soil Water Index (SWI) with a range of 0 to 100 is now falling alarmingly in sections of these valleys.


As an example, Taloumbi & Harwood parishes in the Clarence Valley and Coraki & Richmond parishes in the Richmond Valley - all designated as in intense drought - had SWIs of 0 on 14 October 2033. 


While Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasting indicates that heat may be an issue going forward.


BOM, screenshot,10 Oct 2023


Sunday 1 October 2023

Tweed Shire expects to start rolling out water restrictions within next few weeks and rest of the Northern Rivers region likely to be following its lead sooner rather than later




NSWDPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) mapping, 23 September 2023. CDI = Combined Drought Indicator. RI = Rainfall Index. SWI = Soil Water Index. PGI = Pasture Growth Index. DDI = Drought Direction Index

Click on map to enlarge



There are 19 large dams on NSW regional regulated rivers and hundreds of smaller dams, reservoirs & weirs associated with a mix of environmental use, off-farm agricultural and urban water storage on other rivers.


Across the seven local government areas in the Northern Rivers region water storage locations include:

Toonumbar Dam

Rocky Creek Dam

Clarrie Hall Dam

Emmigrant Creek Dam

Korrumbyn Creek Dam

Shannon Creek Dam

Bray Park weir

Tyalgum weir

Mullumbimby Power Station weir

Jambour weir

Kyogle weir

Nymboida weir

Rushforth Road 100ML Reservoir.


Tweed Shire Council is strongly alerting its residents and ratepayers as to the current situation and what may lie ahead.


The Echo, 27 September 2023:


Following the devastating floods of 2022 we are back to dry weather. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has declared an El Nino weather pattern and it has predicted that there will be less-than-average rainfall in the Northern Rivers this year. Tweed Council is reminding residents and visitors that it is important to save water as we head into dry weather.


Without significant rain, the Tweed will head into water restrictions, with restrictions for Tyalgum looking likely in the next few weeks,’ said Tweed Shire Council’s (TSC) water and wastewater business and assets manager Michael Wraight.


We source our water from the Tweed River at Bray Park and Uki, plus the Oxley River at Tyalgum. The river flows are down and the weir pools at Bray Park and Tyalgum are drying up.


While Clarrie Hall Dam is currently sitting at 98 per cent capacity, it will now drop about 1 to 1.5 per cent, per week, as we start releasing water to supply the Bray Park Weir – the source of water for most of the Shire.


We will trigger level 1 water restrictions when the Clarrie Hall Dam level drops to 85 per cent.


Restrictions at Tyalgum will be introduced sooner. The flow of the Oxley River at Tyalgum is down to a trickle and the weir pool there is dropping fast.’


Friday 15 September 2023

Loss of soil moisture and drought conditions continue to grow across New South Wales in September 2023

 

NSW DPI COMBINED DROUGHT INDICATOR MAPPING


Click on image to enlarge




Data current to 10/9/2023 (AEST)


CDI = Combined Drought Indicator. RI = Rainfall Index. SWI = Soil Water Index. PGI = Pasture Growth Index. DDI = Drought Direction Index


NOTE: The CDI and its individual rainfall, soil moisture and crop/pasture growth metrics are leading biophysical indices of seasonal conditions and drought status. Other factors affecting production and economic responses usually lag the CDI.


From Hastings/Port Macquarie up to the NSW-Qld border 78.7% of the North Coast is Drought Affected and 9.2% In Drought. Only 12.1% is currently considered unaffected by drought.


Water NSW: regional water storage levels as of 14 September 2023








According to the NSW Department of Primary Industries, end August 2023:


Drought conditions are continuing to expand and intensify on the North Coast, Northern Tablelands, Hunter and the South East Local Land Services (LLS) Regions of NSW. These conditions are consistent with the onset of a major drought in these regions, and the drought indicators show that the area of this event is growing across the Northern Tablelands and North-West. Producers are continuing to monitor on-ground conditions and climate forecasts closely, while implementing actions in line with their individual drought strategies.


Seasonal Climate Outlook


Seasonal climate forecasts indicate increased likelihood of warmer than average daytime and overnight temperatures for most of NSW for the September to November period.

Rainfall has an increased likelihood of being below average to well below average for most of NSW for the next three months.

The ENSO Outlook status remains at El Niño ALERT. When El Niño ALERT criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive



Sunday 30 July 2023

The NSW coastal drought continued to grow in July 2023

 

As of 23 July 2023 – Day 53 of the 92 day official Australian Winter – an est. of 97.7 % of the land area of the NSW wider North Coast is identified Non Drought, 2% Drought Affected and 0.3% in Drought , according to the NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI).




SEE: https://edis.dpi.nsw.gov.au/



The DPI Combined Drought Indicator mapping currently indicates that in the seven Northern Rivers local government areas of north-east NSW at rough estimates:


Est. 7% of the Clarence Valley is In Drought, est. 57% is Drought Affected and 36% Non Drought;

Est. 8% of the Richmond Valley is In Drought, est. 72% is Drought Affected and 20% is Non Drought;

Est. 7% of Lismore is Drought Affected and 93% Non Drought;

Est. 21% of Kyogle is Drought Affected and 79% Non Drought;

Est. 56% of Tweed is Drought Affected and 44% Non Drought;

Est. 100% of Ballina is Non Drought; and

Est. 100% of Byron is Non Drought.


Rainfall deficiencies, Australia, December 2022 to June 2023:

Click on image to enlarge


In north-east New South Wales, an area of serious deficiency extends inland from the west of the ranges, with pockets of serious and severe deficiency east of the Divide and in the Hunter District. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 6 July 2023]


Friday 9 June 2023

DROUGHT: and so it begins.....

 

The green map of New South Wales is changing colour as soil moisture begins to fall.


Thus far drought affected land is confined to the north-east and north-west of the state, with 10.9% of land on the North Coast affected.


 An est. 35 parishes are drought affected in the Clarence Valley13 parishes in the Richmond Valley and 3 border parishes in Tweed Shire.


The Dept. of Primary Industry seasonal update considers that "Drought Affected Land" status is intensifying in the Clarence Valley. Currently that status appears to cover an area roughly from just south of Lawrence following the river to land up past Dumbudgery and, from the Yulgilbar district in the north to the Elland district in the south.










NSW Dept. of Primary IndustriesCombined Drought Indicator, mapping as of 3 June 2023


Tuesday 30 May 2023

So this Australian Winter was expected to be drier and warmer than the median mark, but now it seems twice as likely a rainfall suppressing El Niño event will also start this year


During the multi-year Millennium Drought from 1997 to 2010, south east Australia experienced its lowest 13-year rainfall record since 1865 over the years 2006 to 2010.


Temperatures were also much hotter than in previous droughts and temperature extremes peaked during the heatwave and bushfires in early 2009. This culminated in the loss of 374 lives in Victoria and many more over the larger southeast in the heatwave leading up to Black Saturday. There were 173 lives lost in the fires.


The years 2015 to 2016 saw El Niño combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the second half of 2015 further suppressing rainfall, so that rainfall was the equal fourth-lowest on record for Australia during September, Tasmania had its driest Spring on record and mean temperatures were also highest on record for October to December 2015. This El Niño also contributed to an early start to the 2015-16 southern fire season.


By 2017 Australia was again in the grips of a multi-year drought. Very dry conditions in the cool season were followed by only a limited recovery in the October–December period in 2017 and 2018. This meant record-low rainfalls over various multi-year periods.


By June 2018 more than 99% of NSW was declared as affected by drought. The most extreme rainfall deficiencies over multi-year periods occurring in the northern half of New South Wales.


In June-July 2019 New South Wales began a trial by mega bushfires, as did other east coast states, that lasted through to January 2020.


Widespread drought was not an issue for the remainder of 2020 through to the present day, given La Niña visited three times in three years bringing high rainfall events and record floods in the eastern states.


However, the Australian Dept. of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ABARE) is now drawing attention to this:


All but one international climate model surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will exceed El Niño thresholds in June. [ABARES Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update, 25 May 2023] 




[ABARES, 25 May 2023] Click on image to enlarge


Suggesting in its climate update that there is now twice the risk of an El Niño event this year, with a likelihood of it making itself felt sometime between August and October.


The overall outlook for this Australian Winter continues to be below median rainfall and warmer median temperatures. 


The main urban centres in the Clarence Valley have a chance of unusually warm temperatures over the winter months of between est. 55-60% (Maclean-Yamba-Iluka) and 59-65% (Grafton). While elsewhere in the Northern Rivers region unusually warm temperatures are expected in Lismore with est. 58-59% chance, Tweed Heads est. 59-62% chance, with Byron Bay & Ballina at est. 60-61% chance. [BOM, Climate outlooks—weeks, months and seasons, June-September 2023]


How this developing scenario affects agricultural growing seasons over the next twelve months is anyone's guess.


In New South Wales only the parishes of Newbold and Braylesford in the Clarence Valley are showing Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) at “Drought Affected”

Nevertheless, root-zone soil moisture has been falling across north-east NSW so that by end of April 2023 it was very much below average in from the coast. 


Remembering that drought 'safety net' Shannon Creek Dam, which supplies urban town water to both Coffs Harbour City and Clarence Valley resident populations (total 134,538 persons, June 2022) is currently at 92.6% capacity or 27,677 megalitres, perhaps we may see increased water restrictions by the next Christmas-New Year period. Given the tourist-driven seasonal population rise increases water consumption and that 80% dam capacity is the increased restrictions trigger.


It doesn't take a genius to suspect that should a drought develop, the 2024 and 2025 bush fire seasons might also be highly problematic for rural and regional areas across Australia.


Friday 13 January 2023

Unsurprisingly New South Wales is yet to officially enter drought. However, soils do appear to be drying out in some regions.

 

Unsurprisingly New South Wales is yet to officially enter drought. However, soils do appear to be drying out in some regions.


The Australian Water Outlook for 11 January 2023 shows the Clarence River catchment rootzone soil moisture is 21% in absolute terms (below average) and in the 11th percentile in relative terms – representing the percentage of available water content in the top 1m of the soil profile.


While the upper layer soil moisture is 2% in absolute terms (below average) and the 8th percentile ranking in relative terms – representing the percentage of available water content in the top 10 cm of the soil profile.


Across the entire Northern Rivers region it appears that only the Brunswick and Richmond river catchments are coming in with an average soil moisture content for the month of January 2023 to date.


Overall the average first 10cm of the state's top soils holds only 0.83% moisture in absolute terms and the root zone 10% moisture.


The Australian Bureau of Meteorology gives north-east NSW a 50–55 chance of exceeding median rainfall between February and May 2023.


On Thursday 12 January 2023 the NSW Rural Fire Service recorded an ongoing bushfire fire at Townsend in the Lower Clarence on 6ha of grass & close tree cover and a fire at Malabugilmah on a 19 ha mix of grass and open woodland. Both fires are under control


Clarence Valley Independent, 11 January 2023:




Smoke rises into the sky as a massive fire takes hold of the Australian Community Care Network (ACCN) and the adjoining property Broomy’s Towing and Recovery on December 28. Image: Ross Pritchard



Heavy black smoke billowed over Grafton’s CBD shortly after 4pm on December 28, as close to 70 firefighters and emergency services personnel fought to contain a large-scale fire which seriously damaged two properties in Fitzroy and Victoria Streets and impacted several nearby businesses.


A spokesperson for NSW Police said the blaze began in a storage area at the rear of the Australian Community Care Network (ACCN) in Fitzroy Street and quickly spread to the adjoining business in Victoria Street, Broomy’s Towing and Recovery.


As Grafton Fire and Rescue 306 Station Captain Garry Reardon and several of his crew members battled the flames from Victoria Street, Grafton Fire and Rescue 306 Station Deputy Captain Chris Rumpf undertook fire attack from Fitzroy Street.


Describing the blaze as extremely fierce, Captain Reardon said local crews were aided by firefighters from Ballina, Lismore, Goonellabah, Casino, Maclean, Yamba, Woolgoolga, and Coffs Harbour, along with Rural Fire Service (RFS) crews from Southampton, Ulmarra, Grafton, and Casino.


NSW Ambulance paramedics also attended the scene and treated several firefighters who suffered minor burns and dehydration as they fought to bring the fire under control and save neighbouring properties.


No other injuries were reported.


It was a massive blaze,” Captain Reardon said.


It certainly took hold of the buildings very quickly.


From Victoria Street, we had fire control within half an hour, but it was still roaring in Fitzroy Street.”


Deputy Captain Rumpf recalled being faced with a wall of flames upon his arrival at the scene, and said conditions were very hot and very intense……


Manager of the ACCN Alison Tomlinson described the situation as a nightmare, and revealed the business lost more than 50 percent of its stock including numerous food and household items, a cool room, and a large freezer, and is currently unable to trade.


Dean Broomhall from Broomy’s Towing and Recovery confirmed they are still operating after their tow truck was saved from the flames which caused significant internal damage to their building…...




Firefighters battle to control the fire after it spread into Broomy’s Towing and Recovering in Victoria Street. Image: contributed



Read the full article here.


Sunday 5 December 2021

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is back trying to pretend the politically inconvenient fact of climate change is not occurring in the leadup to the 2022 federal election


Australian Bureau of Meteorology



On 5 November 2021 Australian Prime Minister & Liberal MP for Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison issued a lengthy media statement which ended with these three lines:


High Risk Weather Events

National Cabinet received a briefing from Emergency Management Australia on the 2021-22 High Risk Weather Season, and noted that a La Niña watch has been issued in 2021.”


NOTE: Emergency Management Australia falls within the Dept. of Home Affairs. It organises the National Catastrophic Natural Disaster Plan (NATCATDISPLAN) last updated in 2017, republished in 2020.


To be honest I did not think why those three lines had been tacked on at the end of a statement which covered Vaccination and Booster Plans, Ensuring COVID-19 Outbreak Readiness for Indigenous Communities, National Plan to Transition Australia’s COVID-19 Response, Living with COVID-19 - Revised Test, Trace, Isolate and Quarantine (TTIQ) and Public Health and Social Measures (PHSMs), Living with COVID-19 - Health System Capacity, Borders and International Travel, along with this live link Doherty Institute COVID-19 modelling: 2nd tranche [PDF 651 KB].


At most all I thought was ‘Oh yes, the La Niña ALERT. North Coast Voices covered that in October and November posts'.


What I didn’t know and the Prime Minister did, was that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology had put together a rather more pointed weather outlook and forecast in power point form, which brought together the dry technical language on its website & its YouTube videos in a way that clearly showed where climate change had landed us all in 2021-22.


It must have been as obvious to the Prime Minister, as it was to me once I sighted segments of that presentation, that this was not information that a notorious climate change trivialising federal government would want to highlight going into an election year. However, as a slippery, slithering game player who is always looking for plausible deniability, those three brief lines would allow Morrison to say 'but I told Australia about it!' if a journalist thought to ask.


Here are a selection of slides from that presentation courtesy of Senator Rex Patrick’s Twitter account:






Click on images to enlarge.



The Guardian, 4 December 2021:


Tropical cyclones and flooding are set to pummel Australia over summer, national cabinet documents reveal.


The Bureau of Meteorology briefed the meeting of premiers, chief ministers and the prime minister on 5 November about the high-risk weather facing the nation until April.


National cabinet documents are usually kept secret, but South Australian senator Rex Patrick obtained these under freedom-of-information laws.


Last week Patrick, the Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, and One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts all launched attacks on the prime minister’s department for its secrecy. There is a broader legal question about whether national cabinet is entitled to the cabinet-in-confidence protection, with critics saying that merely calling it a cabinet does not actually make it one.


The bureau director general, Joe Buffone, presented Emergency Management Australia’s 2021-22 High Risk Weather Season briefing.


The PowerPoint presentation shows there are increased chances of widespread flooding, coastal flooding and erosion, tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves, compared with average summers and early autumns.


There is a lower chance of drought and dust.


The overall risk of severe storms is on par with other years, while parts of Queensland and NSW have an increased risk of bushfire, and there is a higher chance of heatwaves than usual.


Warm waters mean slightly above average tropical cyclone numbers – the average is 11 per season.


La Niña means the weather is likely to be cooler, wetter and stormier. Areas that had above-average rainfall during spring, and therefore more grass, could lead to a heightened grassfire risk, while parts of the east coast will have a lower risk – because the 2019-20 fires reduced fuel loads.


The bureau’s presentation was prepared with publicly available information.


Patrick said the prime minister, Scott Morrison, should have released the documents when he released a media statement about the national cabinet meeting. That statement focused almost entirely on Covid, with a single line about the briefing.


That line prompted Patrick to make the FOI request to the Department of Home Affairs…….


And so it starts.


NSW and Victoria floods: rivers break banks as rain and wind lash Australia’s eastern states, The Guardian, 13 November 2021.


NSW flood damage bill expected to exceed $1b as November rain submerges crops, ABC News, 1 December 2021.


Man dies in Queensland floodwaters as heavy rainfall causes Inglewood to be evacuated, cars swept off road in state's south, ABC News, 1 December 2021.


BOM issues flood warning for Chinchilla on the Western Downs, as parts of southern Queensland begin clean-up, ABC News, 3 December 2021.


Sunday 1 August 2021

Just 31 days out from the beginning of Spring and parts of the Clarence and Richmond valleys are listed as drought affected

 



CDI = Combined Drought Indicator. RI = Rainfall Index. SWI = Soil Water Index. PGI = Pasture Growth Index. DDI = Drought Direction Index. Data current to 22/7/2021 (AEST)



This drought affected area represents est. 1.9% of the NSW North Coast region, with est. 97.9% of the region not experiencing any level of drought.


Wednesday 23 June 2021

Two days remaining to comment on Clarence Valley Council's "Draft Water Restriction Policy - Version 5"


Clarence Valley Council - On Exhibition


Water Restrictions V5 (draft)

Outlines the triggers that we use to introduce or revoke water restrictions.


Purpose


To introduce or revoke water restrictions on the use of reticulated water in the Clarence Valley as required in accordance with the triggers nominated in the procedures and in compliance with relevant Acts.


This policy applies to all properties using water supplied by Council’s water supply infrastructure. The policy does not apply to the use of water from sources that are not part of Council’s water supply infrastructure such as farm dams, watercourses, bores, and rainwater tanks on properties that have no connection to Council’s water supply.


The Draft Water Restrictions policy is available here.


Council welcomes submissions to this policy. Submit online by 11:00 pm on Friday 25 June 2021 by clicking on the Make a Submission button below.



https://www.clarence.nsw.gov.au/cp_themes/metro/make-a-submission.asp






Alternatively, comments can be made in writing to the General Manager, Clarence Valley Council, Locked Bag 23, Grafton, NSW 2460 and clearly marked “Draft Water Restrictions Policy".


For further information about the draft policy, please contact Chris Hellyer, Environmental Officer, Education; Water Efficiency < Christopher.Hellyer@clarence.nsw.gov.au >.


NOTE: A major change in Water Restrictions V5 is that the trigger for imposition of Level 1,2, 3 & 4 water restrictions will no longer be the volume of water remaining in the Shannon Creek Dam, but the combined water volume in Shannon Creek and Karangi dams. This in effect will allow water extraction (without accompanying Level 1 water use restrictions) to continue after Shannon Creek Dam water levels have fallen below the current trigger point of 80% of this dam's water storage capacity.


On 17 June 2021 Shannon Creek Dam was 84% full and Karangi Dam was 99.2% full. This means that Permanent Water Conservation Measures are in place for the Clarence Valley -  the use of sprinklers and unattended hoses is banned permanently between the hours of 9am and 4pm every day when evaporation is at its highest. However, there are no restrictions on handheld hoses or micro-sprays and drippers/sub-surface irrigation.


Given that Coffs Harbour City LGA contributes little to water storage in Karangi Dam (water supplied by Orara & Nymboida Rivers & Shannon Creek Dam) and nothing to storage in the Shannon Creek Dam (water supplied by Nymboida River) and, with no backfeed to Clarence Valley LGA according to Karangi Dam's daily data, it will be the higher water use of Coffs Harbour, with an est. resident population 33 per cent larger than Clarence Valley's population, which will all but guarantee that a return to Level 1 restrictions will likely occur before Spring arrives - even though the entire north-east region of NSW is now drought free and expecting more rain.


However it is not just the size of Coffs Harbor City's population which makes its water extraction levels potentially problematic. It's the fact that the resident population does not live in the Clarence River catchment area which leads to widespread misunderstanding of: (i) the boundaries of the actual catchment area; (ii) the highly variable nature of rivers within the system; the actual volume of freshwater flows; and (iii) the point at which the 394km long Clarence River itself - from its rising near Rivertree to its emptying into the sea at the tidal estuary mouth - starts to become saline and increasingly unfit for human and animal consumption as well as unfit to use for irrigation. That point is approximately at the end of the first 286km of its journey to the ocean. The combined average annual flow from the freshwater tributaries as this flow enters the Clarence River tidal pool appears to be in the vicinity of 3,072,884ML, which is perhaps a better indicator than the annual water exchange that occurs between the ocean and the estuary.


Clarence Valley residents will recognise these basic misunderstandings in this quote on Coffs Harbour City Council's website:


Regardless of whether the water supplying Coffs Harbour City Council residents comes from the Orara River or the Nymboida River, our water all comes from the same catchment.


The mighty Clarence River catchment is 22,716km2 in size, making it the one of the biggest river systems on the east coast of Australia.


The Clarence River catchment headwaters are found around Dorrigo to the south, near Glen Innes in the west, the NSW/QLD border near Woodenbong in the north and along the Richmond Range to the south of Whiporie out to the coast where the Clarence River empties into the Pacific Ocean at Yamba. It is estimated that the average annual flow of water in the Clarence River at Yamba is 5 billion litres.”