Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts

Monday 11 March 2024

STATE OF PLAY AUSTRALIA 2024: anti-corruption agencies with runs on the board & the new kid on the block


 With corruption perceived as thriving around the world and Australia showing a worsening corruption level with a 10 point change in the wrong direction since 2012, according to Transparency International, it would be nice to see some improvement on the horizon.


In its 2023 report it seems Australia is not showing any such improvement on CPI results in the previous 2022 report. Although in all fairness, on a global scale the nation is not ranked as a high range offender.


Nevertheless, on the Australian east coast alone, four states and one territory published reports on a combined 73 corruption/integrity investigations in the 18 months between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2023. [See "BACKGROUND"]


So I'm hoping that the slow progress of the first seven months of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) only indicates a new anti-corruption agency finding its way and, next year the general public will begin to see at least a hint that some of its 13 current investigations are nearing conclusion. Most especially, I'm hoping that Commissioner Brereton publishes the results of all completed investigations which found corrupt conduct.


Because I can see no good reason why the misdeeds of federal public officials/public servants should be afforded a total secrecy not afforded to their state and local government counterparts or any ordinary citizen.


On 5 March 2024 NACC released its regular weekly update for the reporting period: 1 July 2023 to midnight Sunday, 3 March 2024.


Overview


The National Anti-Corruption Commission:


  • has received 2594 referrals

  • has 376 referrals currently under assessment including 13 under preliminary investigation

  • is conducting 13 corruption investigations

  • is overseeing or monitoring 25 investigations by other agencies


Referral and assessment


At the end of the reporting period, the Commission had:


  • received 2594 referrals

  • excluded 2009 referrals at the triage stage because they did not involve a Commonwealth public official or did not raise a corruption issue

  • 160 referrals awaiting triage

  • 216 triaged referrals under assessment including 13 under preliminary investigation

  • assessed 233 referrals, in respect of which the Commission:

      • decided to take no further action in 213 cases. Typically, this is because the referral does not raise a corruption issue, or there are insufficient prospects of finding corrupt conduct, or the matter is already being adequately investigated by another agency, or a corruption investigation would not add value in the public interest.

      • referred 5 corruption issues to agencies for investigation or consideration.

      • decided to investigate 9 corruption issues itself.

      • decided to investigate 4 corruption issues jointly with another agency.


BACKGROUND


In New South Wales out of the five investigation reports published by Independent Commission Against Corrupt Conduct (NSW ICACC) in 2023, four found seriously corrupt conduct involving members of state parliament, elected local government officials, public authority employees or property developers. While in 2022 four out of five investigation reports published found seriously corrupt conduct involving members of state parliament, political lobbyists, public servants, legal practitioners or land council employees.


In 2022-23 the Queensland Crime and Corruption Commission (CCC) received 3,931 corruption complaints and assessed 3,686 corruption complaints. Finalising 39 corruption investigations, resulting in two criminal charges and seven recommendations for disciplinary action.


In 2022-23 the Victorian Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission (IBAC) began 11 investigations and 18 preliminary inquiries into public sector corruption and police misconduct. It also completed 14 investigations and 12 preliminary inquiries, with 18 investigations and preliminary inquiries still in progress at the end of that financial year.


Also in 2022-23 the ACT Integrity Commission worked on 13 investigations, including two new investigations. It also referred 9 matters:

  • six referrals to the Public Sector Standards Commissioner

  • one referral to ACT Corrective Services

  • one referral to ACT Health

  • one referral to the Justice and Community

    Safety Directorate.


In 2023 the Tasmanian Integrity Commission released two reports on the potential for bias and conflict of interest in local government hiring practices.



Wednesday 14 February 2024

COVID-19 2024: I suspect there has long been a debate in government & public health sectors from which the Australian public in large measure appears to have been excluded


How the road to widespread abandonment of effective communicable disease control began.


In January 2020 the SARS-CoV-2 virus, commonly known as COVID-19, entered Australia and by 7 April 2020 there were 5,844 confirmed COVID-19 cases across the country, with 44 deaths [North Coast Voices, COVID-19 confirmed cases count for Australia, states and territories from 29 March 2020]. 


Infection numbers continued to rise and as of 29 July 2021 the national total confirmed infection number stood at 33,732 - with 2,857 mostly locally acquired active cases - and the death toll from COVID-19 was listed as 920 people with the highest number of deaths occurring in the 80-89 year age group.


Eight days later on 6 August 2021 the Sydney Morning Herald reported:


NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the state must learn to live with COVID-19 as the number of people in hospital with the virus doubled within a week and the nation’s chief medical officer called for a circuit-breaker to halt the spread across Sydney.


As NSW reported a record 291 new cases on Friday, Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said low vaccination rates, non-compliance and the speed of diagnosis highlighted the need to reconsider the state’s strategy.


On 23 August 2021 then Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the 'national plan to live with COVID'


Prime minister Scott Morrison has said Australia must 'learn to live with' Covid-19. 'Once you get to 70% of your eligible population being vaccinated, and 80% ... the plan sets out we have to move forward'. Morrison said once those vaccine targets are hit, it is not about case numbers any more and people need to change their mindsets. 'Because if not at 70% and 80% then when? Then when?,' he said. 'This can not go on forever, this is not a sustainable way to live in this country,' Morrison said.


Needless to say by 31 December 2021 'living with COVID' à la Gladys and Scott saw the national confirmed COVID-19 infection numbers grow to 395,504 men, women and children with 137,752 mostly locally acquired active infections and, 2,239 deaths.


For it seemed that 'living with COVID' might have been Morrison's coded phrase for forced herd immunity and, like many of Morrison's schemes this one doesn't really appear to be working that well - unless the intention was to abandon the old, sick or vulnerable to this disease.


So this is where we are at today.....

 

In February 2024, as part of its fragmented public reporting of COVID-19 infection in the state, NSW Health announced that from 1 January 2024 to 3 February 2024 a total of 17,140 people ranging from 0-4 years up to 90+ years tested positive to COVID-19 via a PCR test, a total of 523 of the people were local residents in the Northern NSW Local Health District. With an est. 28% of the 17,170 requiring hospitalisation in the first week of January rising to 35% by 3 February. [NSW COVID-19 WEEKLY DATA OVERVIEW Epidemiological weeks 4 & 5, ending 03 February 2024]


Confirmed COVID-19 Infection by Age Groupings, 1 July 2023 to 3 February 2024

[ibid] Right click on image to enlarge


Note: The highest age group infection rate per 100,000 for the entire 6 months is a Bright Pink line representing those aged 90+ years and the second highest is Bright Blue representing those aged 65-89 years. While for the last four months and four days the third highest infection rate is represented by Red which indicates small children 0-4 years of age.


At state and national level total COVID-19 deaths have been increasingly hidden from the view of the general public in undifferentiated or hard to quantify mortality graphs and, on 20 October 2023 Australia’s Chief Medical Officer declared that COVID-19 is no longer a Communicable Disease Incident of National Significance (CDINS) following the end of winter in Australia.


On 8 February 2024 La Trobe University sent out a media release discussing a study led by Dr Joel Miller, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at La Trobe University, found that locking down the most at-risk group of people for a significant period, while simultaneously promoting infection in other groups in order to reach herd immunity, could be the best way to protect the high-risk groups. [my yellow highlighting]


However, increasing the exposure of one group to a disease would create an ethical dilemma and potentially result in the most disadvantaged groups in the community – usually with the least political power – becoming the highly-infected group.....


ABC News, 11 February 2024:


Steve Irons' older brother Jim was only supposed to be in hospital for a short while. A retired stockman from Maryborough, Queensland, Jim was diagnosed with leukaemia just before Christmas in 2022. He was flown to Brisbane for testing, then back to Maryborough Hospital, where doctors were putting together a plan for him to be treated at home.


But a patient in the room next door to Jim's had COVID, Steve says, and on January 14 last year, Jim tested positive too. "After four days, when the hospital told me he was no longer infectious, I took the risk and decided to visit him," says Steve, who'd flown up from Tasmania. "I sat with him for three days, playing country music, reading to him."


And then, on Saturday January 21, Jim Irons died of COVID-19 pneumonia and acute myeloid leukaemia, aged 79. It still distresses Steve to know his brother would have lived longer had he not caught a dangerous virus in a place he should have been safe. Once Jim had COVID, he says, hospital staff kept his door closed and donned masks and gowns when they came into his room. But hindsight is 20/20. "For me, to put him next door to a COVID patient caused his death," Steve says. "It didn't have to happen that way. If they'd had a separate COVID ward … with formal routes of entry, cleaning, controlled ventilation, Jim could still be with us now."


Twelve months later Australian hospitals have become a strange new battleground in the fight against COVID, with doctors and public health experts concerned that too many patients are catching the virus — and an alarming number are dying — as a result of inadequate infection control. Until recently, tools like contact tracing, testing, N95 respirators and good ventilation were mainstays of COVID management in healthcare settings. But in many hospitals they've been wound back or ditched in tandem with other community protections, putting patients and healthcare workers at risk and deterring others from seeking treatment.


Health departments insist the risk of catching COVID cannot be eliminated completely, and that hospitals maintain stringent measures to prevent infections and manage outbreaks. But senior healthcare workers in several states say vulnerable people — including transplant and oncology patients and others with compromised immune systems — are contracting COVID because even basic precautions are not being taken: a consequence, they say, of hospitals' failure to address airborne transmission, and the pervasive myth that COVID is "just a cold".


The 'Robodebt' of medicine

Of course, evidence clearly shows COVID is nothing like a cold, particularly for hospital patients who are at higher risk of severe illness and death. Shocking data released under Freedom of Information laws last year revealed 5,614 people were suspected to have caught COVID in Victorian public hospitals between 2020 and April 2023, with more than one in 10 confirmed or suspected to have died as a result of their infection. In Queensland, similar data shows an average of 13 people caught COVID in hospital every day in the 18 months to June last year, with one patient dying every two days.


"The data we are aware of indicates that there is a large problem here," says Associate Professor Suman Majumdar, chief health officer for COVID and health emergencies at the Burnet Institute. "The key policy aim in Australia is to protect the medically vulnerable and there is no more vulnerable group than people in our hospitals and aged care."


Whilst patients who catch COVID in hospital might be older and sicker, Dr Majumdar says, "this is a patient safety issue". "These are preventable infections and therefore preventable deaths and we need to take action to reduce them by setting targets, tracking progress and reporting transparently like we do for other hospital acquired infections."....


Sunday 11 February 2024

Opinion: "Those with the loudest voices do not speak for all Jews in Australia"


Sarah Schwartz and Max Elliott Kaiser writing in The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 February 2024:


Those with the loudest voices do not speak for all Jews in Australia.


Today, talk about antisemitism is everywhere - in newspapers, conversations between friends, and especially on social media. Many Jews feel scared. They are told to see antisemitism in the scarves worn in solidarity with Palestine, in the words "Free Palestine" voiced at protests, and in the stickers calling for the boycott of Israeli products.


But while reports of antisemitism have increased in Australia since Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel - as have those of anti-Palestinian racism and Islamophobia - none of these are examples of it. They are instead legitimate expressions of support for Palestinians who are facing overwhelming levels of violence and displacement.


When Australia's pro-Israel lobby groups mischaracterise these expressions as antisemitic, they produce fear and demonise Palestinians and their supporters. These accusations rely on a conflation of Jews and Israel - that any criticism of the state of Israel is seen as an attack on all Jews. This conflation reflects the view, promoted by Israel, that Jewish identity and safety worldwide is inextricable from Israel and its "security". Any criticism of Israel's use of brute force against Palestinians in the name of this security is by default deemed antisemitic.


As proud Jews who are committed to combating real racism, we know these are not the same thing. Jewish people have identities separate from the state of Israel and our cultures and practices are far older than Zionism. The truth is that the Jewish community is not a monolith. We might better speak of multiple Jewish communities with unique histories, diverse expressions of Jewishness, and - in our view increasingly - conflicting views on Israel. Jews here and around the world, particularly those with personal connections to Israel, are still reeling from the killing of more than 1100 people in Israel, the majority civilians, on October 7. Many Jews also abhor the violence Israel has since meted out to Palestinians in Gaza. More than 27,000 people have been killed, according to Gaza's health ministry, many of them children and most of them civilians, and 2 million have been displaced from their homes.


Almost 1000 Jewish people in Australia have signed an open letter condemning Israel's collective punishment of Palestinians in Gaza, calling for a ceasefire and stating that: "Our Jewish values are incompatible with the unjustified cruelty and reckless disregard for human life and dignity that the Israeli government is displaying."


A survey in June 2023 found disagreement between Jews in Australia in relation to Israel's control over Palestinians in the West Bank. Irreconcilable differences of opinion between Jews are widening, yet the broader Australian public could be forgiven for thinking all Jews agree.


This is in part because most so-called Jewish representative organisations in Australia refuse to represent this diversity of opinion between Jews and have become explicit Israel lobby groups. One of these organisations, the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, prepares a regular report on rising antisemitism in Australia.


In its December 2023 report, cited widely in the media, it brings attention to many real incidents of hate against Jews such as graffiti in November on a block of flats saying "kill jews, jews live here".


However, disgusting instances such as this are also lumped in with legitimate political expressions of solidarity with Palestinians, criticism of Israel and criticism of Zionism as a political ideology. Examples include graffiti and placards reading "Zionism = racism" and "end the Palestinian Holocaust" being considered antisemitic, as was the protest chant "intifada, intifada", which means "uprising" in Arabic.


The Israel lobby's conflation of these types of incidents has meant that claims of antisemitism are being exploited to stifle legitimate criticism of Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.


The Australian public now knows there is a concerted effort by organised pro-Israel lobbyists to target individuals who publicly criticise the state of Israel.


Leaked messages from WhatsApp groups reveal campaigns to target actors who wore the keffiyeh - a scarf worn in solidarity with Palestinians - for a curtain call; broadcaster Antoinette Lattouf, who reposted content on Gaza; and doctors who engaged in political action in support of healthcare workers in Gaza. We should all be concerned when political lobbying crosses over into intimidation aimed at suppressing legitimate expression in a democratic society.


The baseless weaponisation of accusations of antisemitism by various lobby groups aims to undermine the movement for a just future for Palestinians, but it also undermines the fight against antisemitism. The history and concept of antisemitism risks becoming confused and devalued amid a very real fight worldwide against genuine anti-Jewish racism and an increase in fascist activity. It will lead to real instances of antisemitism being dismissed.


We are proud of being Jewish. We are the descendants of Jews who fled violence, horror and racism. We grew up hearing stories of Holocaust survivors. For us, honouring our ancestors means fighting against racist violence wherever it appears. Doing all we can to stop Israel's overwhelming violence against Palestinian civilians, found to be a plausible case of genocide by the International Court of Justice, is an ethical imperative precisely because of our Jewishness and our histories.


We write these words knowing we will face backlash. Palestinians face the worst targeting from lobbyists. However, the state of Israel, and groups that lobby on its behalf, have no qualms about going after fellow Jews. In order to maintain that their actions are for the benefit of all Jews, they must silence and discredit Jewish dissenters.


Every Jew we know who has spoken out against Israel has faced threats, social exclusion, intimidation, campaigns for sacking or attempts to discredit them. We are called "self-hating", "Kapos", "Nazi sympathisers", or "fake Jews". Lattouf's Jewish lawyer Josh Bornstein was even called a "traiter" [sic] by a participant in the Lawyers for Israel group which advocated for the broadcaster's sacking.


We are part of a growing number of Jewish people who have spoken out against Israel's actions. Antisemitism is a real threat, but the cynical misappropriation of this term is causing unnecessary fear and shutting down critical dialogue around Israel's war. We are proud of our Jewishness, and we refuse to let those with the loudest voices speak for all Jews in Australia.


Sarah Schwartz is a human rights lawyer and lecturer at the University of Melbourne. Dr Max Elliott Kaiser is a historian, expert on antisemitism and author of Jewish Antifascism and the False Promise of Settler Colonialism.


Sunday 26 November 2023

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY 2023: the climate change microwave has been cooking Australia on "High"

 

It been easy in recent years to take our eyes off the ball when it came to the that important predictive climate change number, the Global Surface Temperature Anomaly which tracks the degree the Earth is warming over time. So many urgent distractions - global pandemic, wars and war crimes, the local effects of rolling unnatural disasters and rising cost of living.


This is where the world, Australia, Eastern Australia and New South Wales stand in 2023......


Commonwealth Science Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Climate Change In Australia, YEARS AT THE +1.5 °C GLOBAL WARMING LEVEL, retrieved 25 November 2023:


Climate variability is greater at the national and state level than in the global average, so some places have already experienced a year consistent with the what is expected to be the ‘new normal’ (the long-term average) at a +1.5 °C global warming level. Have we already seen any such years in Australia?


The answer is now yes.


The globe has warmed by around +1.1 °C, Australia by around +1.6 °C, a ratio of around x1.4. This suggests that when the world is at +1.5 °C, Australia will be at around +2.1 °C since 1850–1900. The average temperature of the record year 2019 was at around this temperature – so is expected to be typical of an average year in Australia in a +1.5 °C world. [my yellow highlighting]


ABC News, 24 November 2023:


Last week, global temperatures appeared to momentarily breach a threshold set by world governments to try and avoid widespread climate devastation.


On November 17 and 18, the world was, on average, 2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels for the first time in modern recorded history.


The pre-industrial period was a time before widespread fossil fuel use....


Over the past 10 months, the average global temperature was more than 1.3C above pre-industrial levels.....


Current greenhouse gas levels and emissions puts the planet on a trajectory to exceed Paris Agreement targets....


BBC News, 7 October 2023:


...BBC analysis of data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that, up to 2 October, around 86 days in 2023 have been over 1.5C warmer than the pre-industrial average. That beats the 2016 record well before the end of the year.


There is some uncertainty in the exact number of days that have breached the 1.5C threshold, because the numbers reflect a global average which can come with small data discrepancies. But the margin by which 2023 has already passed 2016 figures gives confidence the record has already been broken.


"The fact that we are reaching this 1.5C anomaly daily, and for a longer number of days, is concerning," said Dr Lazenby.


One important factor in driving up these temperature anomalies is the onset of El Niño conditions.


When it comes to tracking temperature anomalies across  relatively smaller areas over time, such as the eastern half of the Australian continent or the state of New South Wales, one has some indication as to why the CSIRO expects Australia to be so much hotter than the global temperature anomaly when 1.5°C is the 'normal' annual average. 


Monthly maximum temperature anomalies retrieved from Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) 25.11.23.








NOTE:


 Anomalies denote the departure of an element from its long-period average value for the location concerned. For example, if the maximum temperature for June in Melbourne was 1 degree Celsius higher than the long-term average for this month, the anomaly would be +1 degrees Celsius. The current international standard is to use the 30 year average from 1961 to 1990 as the long-term average. (BOM, Climate Glossary 2023]


With regard to tracking climate change global surface temperature anomalies the baseline is pre-industrial temperature levels which is widely interpreted as those occurring before 1850 perhaps as early as before 1800. The United Nations IPCC uses as its reference period the years 1850–1900 to represent pre-industrial temperature. 



Tuesday 7 November 2023

Global ocean heat is intensifying and seas below the 30th Parallel South appear to have seen the largest increase in absorbed & accumulated heat

 

The world ocean, in 2023, is now the hottest ever recorded, and sea levels are rising because heat causes water to expand and ice to melt,’...Ecosystems are also experiencing unprecedented heat stress, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are changing rapidly, and the costs are enormous.’ [Scientia Professor Matthew England, co-author of the study from the UNSW Centre for Marine Science and Innovation, in the Echo, 6 November 2023]


Over the years science has made the general public increasingly aware that anthropomorphic global warming and subsequent climate change has been heating the world's oceans beyond their normal temperature range.


What we aren't always aware of is exactly which oceans are exhibiting the most persistent warming and the fastest temperature rises.


This recent study below highlights those particular oceans.


It seems that ocean waters from the 30th Parallel south (latitude: -30° 00' 0.00" S longitude: 0° 00' 0.00") are experiencing the most rapid increase in temperatures.


To place that in perspective. From a line running through Australian waters from a point roughly halfway between Red Rock on the Clarence Coast and Corindi Beach on the Coffs Coast (NSW), right down to Tasmania and on towards Antarctica, seawater is heating and expanding until at latest measurement the reading over time now stands at 75.3 ± 4.

While from around Cape Leeuwin to Antarctica the reading is 43.2 ± 4.4.


On the Australian west coast the 30th Parallel can be thought of as running on a latitude approximately halfway between Leeman and Green Head (WA).


This study appears to indicate that, sooner rather than later, the considerable impacts of climate change will increase for the Australian population.


Nature Communications, Article number: 6888 (2023), 28 October 2023, excerpts:


Recentacceleration in global ocean heat accumulation by mode andintermediate waters

Authors: Zhi Li, Matthew H. England & Sjoerd Groeskamp


The ocean directly impacts the Earth’s climate by absorbing and redistributing large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and by exchanging these properties with the atmosphere1. About 91% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases and 31% of human emissions of carbon dioxide2 are stored in the ocean, shielding humans from even more rapid changes in climate. However, warmer oceans result in sea-level rise, ice-shelf melt, intensified storms, tropical cyclones, and marine heatwaves, as well as more severe marine species and ecosystem damage. These effects depend on the pattern of ocean warming; it is thus critical to quantify the dynamics and distribution of ocean warming to better understand its consequences and predict its implications.


The observed distribution of ocean warming is not uniform. About 90% of total ocean warming is found in the upper 2000 m, with over two-thirds concentrated in the upper 700 since the 1950s, and an increase of warming rates at both intermediate depths of 700–2000 m, and in the deeper ocean below 2000 m. The Southern Ocean south of 30°S has been estimated to account for 35–43% of global ocean warming from 1970 to 2017, and an even greater proportion in recent years, while Northern Hemisphere ocean warming appears to be concentrated in the Atlantic Ocean. Due to the accumulated excess heat in ocean basins, an acceleration of total ocean warming has become more evident from recent observational-based studies. While much past work has focused on the distribution of ocean warming as a function of depth and basin, relatively little analysis has been undertaken of the distribution as a function of water-mass layers and within specific water masses. This is the focus of the present study......


When evaluating the ocean heat uptake for each decade (“Methods”), analysis of the past three decades reveals that the ocean heat uptake during 2010–2020 has increased more than 25% relative to 2000–2010 and has nearly doubled relative to the 1990’s WOCE era, as seen in Fig. 1b, where we highlight the decadal ocean heat uptake since the 1960s. Note that there has been both increased ocean sampling and a shift of the observational network from a ship-based system to the Argo network since the initiation of the global Argo array (2001–2003)34. This may impact the estimated increase in global ocean warming over the past three decades (Fig. 1). However, the rate of global mean sea-level rise has also been increasing since 1993 based on an independent estimate from satellite altimeter data1,35, providing confidence in our results given that half of the global sea surface height increase is due to thermal expansion of the ocean since altimeter measurements began. Significant ocean warming and accelerating OHC changes are also consistent with the increase in net radiative energy absorbed by Earth detected in satellite observations, something that is likely to continue throughout the 21st century in the absence of substantial greenhouse gas emissions reductions.


The increased ocean warming is non-uniformly distributed across ocean basins. Overall, in each ocean basin, an increase in OHC is observed (values indicated in Fig. 2a, b), with stronger warming in the mid-latitude Atlantic Ocean and the Southern Ocean compared with other basins. Total warming in the Southern Ocean is estimated to account for ~31% of the global upper 2000-m OHC increase from 1980–2000 to 2000–2010 (Fig. 2a), and almost half of the global OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020 (values indicated in parentheses of Fig. 2b). Hence the Southern Ocean has seen the largest increase in heat storage over the past two decades, holding almost the same excess anthropogenic heat as the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans north of 30°S combined (Fig. 2d). The most striking warming in the Southern Ocean is concentrated on the northern flank of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the location of deep mixed layers and subduction hotspots for Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water, as well as the location of subtropical mode waters formation further equatorward (Fig. 3). The well-ventilated regions near western boundary current extensions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific also reveal large warming over the past two decades. These hotspots of ocean warming are likely linked to enhanced uptake, subduction, and lateral spreading of heat associated with mode and intermediate waters that warrant further investigation.


Fig. 2: Regional intensification in ocean warming over the past two decades, 0–2000 m. Click on image to enlarge



The ensemble mean of ocean heat content (OHC) changes averaged for years a 2000–2010 and b 2010–2020, relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Units of shadings in panels (a, b) are shown as 109 J m−2. The values over each basin indicate the OHC increase relative to the 1980–2000 mean over the Southern (S.O., south of 30°S, dark-red line), Atlantic (ATL), Pacific (PAC), and Indian (IND) Oceans, and are limited to 65°S–65°N. Units are shown as 1021. The values in parentheses in panel (b) indicate the basin-integrated OHC increase from 2000–2010 to 2010–2020. The basin mask used to distinguish ocean basins of the Southern, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans is obtained from ref.  Superimposed gray contours represent the positions of wintertime isopycnals 25, 26.45, 27.05, and 27.5 kg m−3 at 10 m depth from SIO RG-Argo. c, d Zonally integrated OHC change (1021 per degree latitude) versus latitude for the period 2000–2010 (blue line), and 2010–2020 (red line), relative to the 1980–2000 mean. Lines in panels (c) and (d) represent the ensemble mean, and shadings indicate the ±2 ensemble standard deviation uncertainty range (±2σ) of OHC changes.


[my yellow highlighting in the excerpts]


The full study can be read and downloaded at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z#ref-CR13


Thursday 2 November 2023

BUSHFIRE STATE OF PLAY NORTH-EAST NSW & NSW-QLD BORDER REGION: Last two days of October 2023


 


 


Glens Creek Rd bushfire at night
Nymboida, Clarence Valley
IMAGE: NSWRFS


 

Bushfire lit night sky
 Coutts Crossing, Clarence Valley
IMAGE: supplied





 


 


 


 


 

1 November 2022:

The Bush Fire Danger Period is now in place for all local government areas around New South Wales, including along the southern border. If you’re planning on using fire on your property, you’ll need a permit. For more information, visit the #RFS website: http://rfs.nsw.gov.au/BFDP


Saturday 28 October 2023

Analysing large scale heat maps appearing on social media seeking small scale information - an example

 

This interesting temperature anomaly map appeared on social media on the evening of 25 October 2023:














It was accompanied by an observation that "Today 41.0C at Grafton NSW beats its October monthly temperature record"


Unfortunately this remark leads to some confusion as there are two official "real time" weather stations covering the wider Grafton district and none within the boundaries of Grafton City.  

On 25 October 2023 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recorded maximum air temperature at Grafton NSW as:

{Trenayr NSW weather station 058077 commenced 1917} 


Grafton Airport AWS – 39.7°C

{Glenugie NSW weather station 058161 commenced 1973}

 


The recorded maximum temperature at BOM’s research centre weather station on 25 October 2023 did exceed its previous highest recorded maximum temperature for the month of October which was 40.6°C in 2019
The recorded temperature at BOM’s airport weather station on the same day also exceeded the highest recorded maximum temperature in October for that site of 38.9°C in 2017 and, it is this weather station's real time recording which is the basis of daily temperature reporting for Grafton generally. 

The highest temperature recorded for what might be considered Grafton City itself was 39.3°C in October 1988, but as Station 058130 on corner of Oliver & Turf streets only operated between 1966 and 10 Jan 2015 this is of limited value for comparison with maximum temperature records over time.

As both BOM recording units are some distance from the city's main urban population, perhaps as a public service Clarence Valley Council might consider installing a real time recording unit in the park adjoining its Grafton council chambers or a digital temperature display below the Market Square clock.

Sunday 8 October 2023

Surf's Up on NSW North Coast - but so are drownings

 

So Winter has turned to a warmer than usual Spring and a hotter than normal Summer is expected.


Here on the NSW North Coast it means that the number of people - locals and visitors - on the beaches and in the surf or swimming in quieter waters of river mouths and estuaries, is likely to be high this year.


However, it does well to remember that Australian Summer drowning deaths for 2022/23 were the highest for the last 3 years and we all need to take care that we don't become part of those statistics in 2023/24


In the three months between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023, 50 per cent of all drowning deaths that occurred across Australia were in coastal waterways (beaches, oceans, harbours and rocks) and 55 per cent of all drowning deaths occurred on weekends and public holidays.


The majority of drowning deaths from all causes in that three months were people aged between 0 to 64 years of age, with the average age for drowning deaths during the heatwave period being est. 52 years.


And it seems in New South Wales we need to take notice of every water safety rule we were ever taught. 


A worrying 40 per cent of all drowning happened in New South Wales as well as 31 per cent of all drowning deaths over the 9 day Christmas-New Year period 25 Dec 2022-2 Jan 2023.


A total of 55 coastal drowning deaths occurred in the state, with 45 per cent at the beach and 13 per cent off shore.


The Echo, 4 October 2023:


With the Surf Life Saving (SLSC) NSW season now underway (September 23, 2023 – April 25, 2024), the Byron Bay Surf Lifesaving Club are urging the community to be safety aware on beaches and waterways.


And both the Byron and Bruns Surf Lifesaving clubs are appealing for recruits to help make the beaches safe this summer.


Choosing a patrolled beach and swimming between the flags is the safest way to enjoy the ocean, and can save a life’, says Byron Club President, Paul Pattison. ‘Don’t forget to raise your hand if you’re in difficulty, so you can be seen.’


High drowning stats

In summer of 2022/23, there were 54 coastal drowning deaths, all of which occurred at unpatrolled locations. This equates to six drowning deaths every ten days of summer.


Byron Shire has recorded one of the highest numbers of coastal drowning deaths since 2013–23, and is now considered a blackspot (an area with a high probability/risk of ongoing reoccurrence).


Our coastline is a popular destination for tourists, and it’s essential to improve community awareness of our patrolled beaches.


We are hoping to recruit a further 20 patrol members to keep our beaches safe this summer. Members of the community who are interested in, or have previously held their bronze medallion are being encouraged to connect with their local surf club’, Pattison said.


To get involved, visit byronbaysurfclub.org and www.brunswickslsc.org.



BACKGROUND


ROYAL LIFE SAVING SUMMER DROWNING REPORT 2022/23


Every day one person died from drowning across summer, with a surge of deaths during the heat wave in February and a tragic Christmas – New Year holiday week pushing numbers up, the Royal Life Saving Summer Drowning Toll has revealed.


Last year flood-related drowning deaths caused a spike in deaths in February, but this year’s February death toll was even higher – with 31 deaths – despite there not being large-scale flooding in urban areas in 2023.


In total, 90 people lost their lives in Australian waterways and swimming pools between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023.


Tragically, 10 per cent of all drowning deaths this year were rescues gone wrong.


Royal Life Saving Society – Australia Chief Executive Officer Justin Scarr said the trends this year were deeply concerning.


Last year was the worst year on record for summer drowning and we had hoped there would be a significant drop given there was fewer intense flood events this year, but drowning numbers are still too high,” Mr Scarr said.


It’s supposed to be the happiest time of year, but between Christmas Day and January 2, when people gathered together across Australia 22 people drowned. That’s 22 families, friends and communities whose summer became a period of mourning.


The heatwave in February also caused a spike in drowning, with 17 per cent of all drowning deaths over summer attributable to that six-day period.


So many communities were affected by drowning this year, with significant increases in drowning in all states except for Queensland and Tasmania.


Royal Life Saving continues to promote the need for local drowning prevention and water safety plans, targeting known drowning blackspots.


We know that this is the tip of the iceberg. Many more non-fatal drowning incidents are likely to have occurred that aren’t recorded in publicly accessible data and so remain invisible.


We need to get more people in our community getting back into their local pools brushing up on their skills, doing their Bronze Medallion if they’re planning to be at unpatrolled locations including rivers and lakes, and getting their children into learn to swim classes.”


For a full breakdown of NSW drownings in 2022, see: 

https://www.surflifesaving.com.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/09/2022-Surf-Life-Saving-NSW-Coastal-Safety-Report.pdf